有色商品日报-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose significantly, with domestic spot imports in a loss situation. The strong real - estate demand in the US exceeded market expectations, showing economic resilience. The Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia may have a long - term impact on copper supply, and it is expected to drive a significant increase in the average copper price in the fourth quarter. Investors are advised to follow the trend and mainly go long on dips [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. However, domestic mines have not resumed production, and ore shipments have decreased, resulting in a continuous decline in ore inventory. Alumina is generally bearish but has basically bottomed out. The aluminum ingot has not yet reached an actual de - stocking inflection point. The subsequent increase in aluminum prices depends on further improvement in demand [1][2]. - Nickel: The bottom of the nickel price may rise slightly due to macro factors, supply - side disturbances, and the strengthening of raw material prices, but inventory remains a resistance to the price increase [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - Macro: US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, much higher than the expected 650,000 units, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%. The US Treasury Secretary expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed Chairman and called for a 100 - 150 basis - point interest rate cut by the end of the year [1]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 144,775 tons to 200 tons, Comex inventory decreased by 142 tons to 288,695 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 308 tons to 27,419 tons, and BC copper remained at 6,445 tons [1]. - Demand: Downstream buyers are afraid of high copper prices and macro uncertainties, with weak procurement enthusiasm, and domestic social inventory de - stocking is not ideal [1]. - Supply: The Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia is expected to reduce copper and gold production by about 35% (about 270,000 tons) in 2026 compared to previous expectations, and sales in the fourth quarter of 2025 will also be greatly affected [1]. Aluminum - Futures: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. Overnight, AO2601 closed at 2,916 yuan/ton, up 0.76%; AL2510 closed at 20,805 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; AD2511 closed at 20,435 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [1][2]. - Spot: SMM alumina price dropped to 3,008 yuan/ton, aluminum ingot spot discount was 10 yuan/ton to par, and the Foshan A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,620 yuan/ton [2]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic mines have not resumed production, and ore shipments have decreased, resulting in a continuous decline in ore inventory. Alumina is generally bearish but has basically bottomed out. The aluminum ingot has not yet reached an actual de - stocking inflection point, and downstream procurement willingness has declined [2]. Nickel - Futures: LME nickel rose 0.62% to 15,435 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.88% to 122,750 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME nickel inventory increased by 132 tons to 120,586 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 493 tons to 24,971 tons [2]. - Supply and Demand: The sanctions on 39 nickel - mining enterprises in Indonesia have little impact on overall supply. In the stainless - steel sector, cost support has strengthened, but supply has increased. In the new - energy sector, ternary demand has weakened slightly in September, and MHP supply may be relatively tight [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - copper rose by 30 yuan/ton, and the flat - copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 308 tons, and the total inventory increased by 11,760 tons [4]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 40 yuan/ton, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 3,450 tons, with a weekly inventory decrease of 9,229 tons [4]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi aluminum price rose by 10 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 1,224 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 765 tons [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 493 tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 2,334 tons [5]. - Zinc: The main - contract settlement price decreased by 0.2%, and the LME0 - 3 premium decreased by 1.75 US dollars/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, and social inventory decreased by 0.37 million tons [7]. - Tin: The main - contract settlement price increased by 0.5%, and the LME0 - 3 premium increased by 17 US dollars/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 909 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: The report provides charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][14]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 are presented [17][22]. - LME Inventory: Charts of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are shown [25][27][29]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 are provided [31][33][35]. - Social Inventory: Charts of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series stainless - steel from 2019 - 2025 are presented [37][39][41]. - Smelting Profit: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 are shown [43][45][49]. 3.4有色金属团队介绍 - Zhan Dapeng: He holds a master's degree in science and is currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has more than ten years of experience in commodity research and has won many industry awards [52]. - Wang Heng: He holds a master's degree in finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, and is mainly responsible for the research on aluminum and silicon [52]. - Zhu Xi: She holds a master's degree in science from the University of Warwick, UK, and focuses on the research of lithium and nickel [53].