工业硅&多晶硅日报-20250925

Group 1: Research Views - On September 24, industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 9,020 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.84%. The open interest decreased by 2,765 lots to 271,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,604 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 421 rebounded to 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 120 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,380 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.41%. The open interest decreased by 4,904 lots to 111,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium narrowed to 1,120 yuan/ton [2]. - Before the double festivals, the price of silicon coal increased, the resumption of industrial silicon production slowed down, and downstream stocking increased the operating rate, leading to inventory depletion. In the short term, there is a coexistence of cost support and high - inventory pressure, providing some upward support [2]. - A draft of the energy - consumption policy for polysilicon was released, with a slight increase in the first - and second - level standards. Due to Trump's plan to include silicon products in the tax list, there is a strong sentiment of rushing to produce and export polysilicon during the stage when both domestic and foreign policies are not yet implemented. The policy and the actual supply - demand situation deviate, and the divergence between futures and spot prices may continue. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic policies and the US tax rate agreement [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Futures Settlement Price - Industrial silicon: The main contract rose from 8,925 yuan/ton on September 23 to 9,020 yuan/ton on September 24, an increase of 95 yuan/ton; the near - month contract rose from 8,890 yuan/ton to 8,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [3]. - Polysilicon: The main contract rose from 50,260 yuan/ton on September 23 to 51,380 yuan/ton on September 24, an increase of 1,120 yuan/ton; the near - month contract rose from 50,215 yuan/ton to 51,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,775 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Price - Industrial silicon: Most spot prices of different grades and regions remained stable from September 23 to September 24 [3]. - Polysilicon: The prices of N - type polysilicon dense material, N - type recycled polysilicon material, N - type granular silicon material, P - type polysilicon dense material, and P - type recycled polysilicon material remained unchanged at 51,000 yuan/ton, 52,500 yuan/ton, 49,500 yuan/ton, 36,000 yuan/ton, and 37,000 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - Organic silicon: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained stable at 11,100 yuan/ton, 12,100 yuan/ton, and 11,800 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil rose from 11,800 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,200 yuan/ton [3]. Inventory - Industrial silicon: The daily industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 38 to 49,925; the weekly Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 620 to 249,370 tons; the weekly inventory at Huangpu Port remained unchanged at 55,000 tons; the weekly inventory at Tianjin Port decreased by 2,000 to 79,000 tons; the weekly inventory at Kunming Port remained unchanged at 49,000 tons; the weekly industrial silicon factory inventory increased by 3,800 to 261,400 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 1,800 to 444,400 tons [3]. - Polysilicon: The daily polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 20 to 7,850; the weekly Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.2 to 23.70 million tons; the weekly polysilicon factory inventory increased by 0.8 to 24.21 million tons; the total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 0.8 to 24.2 million tons [3]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][12]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][17][19]. 3.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [23][24][26]. 3.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [29][31][36].