供需均有减弱预期，多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have little change, and the industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. The valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, and both supply and demand are expected to decline in the fourth quarter. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, with large fluctuations. In the long - term, it is suitable to buy polysilicon futures at low prices [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis - Futures Price: On September 24, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8950 yuan/ton and closed at 9020 yuan/ton, a change of 0.84% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2511 was 270931 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49925 lots, a decrease of 38 lots from the previous day [1]. - Supply Side: The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. The price of East China oxygen - fed 553 silicon was 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were relatively stable. As of September 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 54.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 tons [1]. - Demand Side: The price of silicone DMC was stable at 10900 - 11200 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises maintained a rigid demand - based procurement rhythm. Although monomer factories had a stronger willingness to hold prices, price increases were restricted, and the demand was affected by the approaching National Day holiday [2]. - Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, and buy - hedging on dips. - Others: No strategies for inter - delivery, cross - product, spot - futures, or options [2]. Polysilicon - Market Analysis - Futures Price: On September 24, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 50300 yuan/ton and closed at 51380 yuan/ton, a 2.41% change from the previous trading day. The position was 111187 lots, and the trading volume was 242016 lots [2]. - Spot Price: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 50.00 - 55.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 0.50% to 31000 tons, and the output of silicon wafers increased by 0.29% to 13.92GW [2][4]. - Enterprise Event: Oriental Hope's Xinjiang polysilicon project will conduct annual maintenance on its three - phase production lines with capacities of 60,000 tons, 60,000 tons, and 90,000 tons respectively. This maintenance is expected to improve product quality and production stability, and it will not have a significant impact on the overall supply [5]. - Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading. - Others: No strategies for inter - delivery, cross - product, spot - futures, or options [6].