宏观预期好转，价格宽幅震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The macro - expectation has improved, and prices are fluctuating widely. Steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and thermal coal prices are all in an oscillatory state, with different influencing factors for each [1][3][5][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - Market Analysis: The domestic steel market showed mixed trends. The futures price of rebar was oscillating strongly, and the spot price was firm. The trading volume of building materials increased slightly compared with the previous day. The rebar main contract closed at 3164 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3357 yuan/ton. The total national building materials trading volume was 103,859 tons [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The downstream demand has restocking needs before the festival, and merchants are more reluctant to sell. With the implementation of relevant "anti - involution" policies, the chasing - up sentiment has declined. The short - term market trading may return to the supply - demand fundamentals, and the short - term building steel prices will enter a wide - range oscillation stage [1]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be in an oscillatory state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The futures price of iron ore weakened slightly. The iron ore main 2601 contract closed at 803.5 yuan/ton. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port remained basically stable. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 155 million tons, a 13.46% decrease from the previous day; the forward spot trading volume was 65 million tons, a 71.37% decrease from the previous day [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The arrival of iron ore this week decreased slightly compared with the previous week, and the port inventory increased slightly but was still lower than the same period in previous years. The restocking demand of steel mills before the National Day has been released. The hot - metal output is still at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of the floating volume on the arrival and the restocking rhythm of steel mills before the festival [3]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be in an oscillatory state, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Market Analysis: The main futures contracts of double - coking oscillated. Due to restocking before the double festivals, the price of coking coal continued to rise, and the cost of coke increased. Some coke enterprises have proposed to raise the coke price. The production of domestic coal mines is relatively stable, and some coal mines have plans to stop production during the National Day, with limited impact on supply. The available high - quality resources at the Mongolian coal port are scarce, and the port will be closed for 7 days during the National Day. The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal has risen to 1030 - 1040 yuan/ton [5][6]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The supply of coke is basically stable, with strong rigid demand support, but the terminal demand recovery is less than expected, the steel inventory accumulation trend remains unchanged, and the pre - festival restocking intensity is relatively limited, so the coke supply and demand are basically balanced. The production of coal mines is gradually recovering, the demand is considerable, but the inventory continues to accumulate, which suppresses the price [6]. - Strategy: Both coking coal and coke are recommended to be in an oscillatory state for unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: The coal prices in the main production areas remained stable. The over - production verification in the production areas continued to be strengthened, but the overall impact was limited. The coal supply at the mine mouth was sufficient, and the prices of some coal mines with low inventory remained stable. At the port, as the mine - mouth coal price continued to rise, the buyer's resistance increased, the pre - festival restocking was basically completed, and the market demand continued to decline. The tender price of imported coal continued to rise, the price of low - calorie domestic coal rebounded, and the price difference between domestic and foreign coal shrank [8]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: The safety supervision in the production areas has become stricter, the supply is relatively sufficient, the daily consumption of thermal coal has begun to decline, and the non - power demand such as the chemical industry has decreased. The short - term coal price will oscillate. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and restocking of non - power coal [8]. - Strategy: No strategy is provided [8].