尿素企业库存继续累积

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: After the export window period, conduct anti - arbitrage on UR01 - 05 when it reaches a high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea spot market has manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. After the spot price breaks through the previous low, the transaction improves but the sustainability is insufficient. The spot price fluctuates weakly. With the rebound of the futures price, the transaction improves. Attention should be paid to the sentiment of order collection before the festival. The domestic demand is weak, the inventory in urea plants continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia. The urea production remains at a high level, and the medium - and long - term supply and demand of urea are still relatively loose. The export side still has a great impact on the sentiment of urea prices. The export window period in September is conducive to continuous exports, and the port inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the resonance period of the increase in export speed and the improvement of domestic demand [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Basis Structure - The report provides information on the market prices of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] Urea Production - The report shows the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [20][26] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It presents the production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][27][29] Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The report includes the FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China, the CFR price of large - particle urea in China, the difference between the FOB prices of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea and China, the difference between the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia and the FOB price in China, the urea export profit, and the futures export profit, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [32][33][37] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, the number of days of pending orders, and the number of days of raw material inventory of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [53][48][54] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report provides information on the upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, futures warehouse receipts, the holding volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [51][54][57] Market Analysis - Price and Basis: On September 24, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,673 yuan/ton (+15). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,610 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,610 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1,620 yuan/ton (+0). The price of small anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 63 yuan/ton (-15), in Henan was - 63 yuan/ton (-25), and in Jiangsu was - 53 yuan/ton (-15). The urea production profit was 80 yuan/ton (+0), and the export profit was 1,149 yuan/ton (+9) [1] - Supply Side: As of September 24, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.21% (+0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2182 million tons (+52,900 tons), and the inventory of port samples was 516,000 tons (-33,400 tons) [1] - Demand Side: As of September 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.63% (+0.81%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 56.78% (+1.40%), and the number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+0.53) [1]