债市情绪脆弱，国债期货全线收跌

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint The bond market sentiment is fragile, and the recovery of risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the continued expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - The social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%. M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no month - on - month change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [10]. - The dollar index is 97.85, with a day - on - day increase of 0.62 and a growth rate of 0.64%. The offshore dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1193, with a day - on - day increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.59, with a day - on - day increase of 0.13 and a growth rate of 8.76%. DR007 is 1.59, with a day - on - day increase of 0.11 and a growth rate of 7.52%. R007 is 1.51, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 3.26%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.60, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.82%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.82% [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report provides multiple charts related to the treasury bond and treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the trend of the settled funds of various treasury bond futures varieties, the proportion of open interest of various treasury bond futures varieties, etc. [15][17][19] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents charts on the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the issuance of local government bonds, as well as the Shibor interest rate trend and the yield - to - maturity trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) [28][34]. IV. Spread Overview The report includes charts on the inter - delivery spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [32][36][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [39][42][50]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report offers charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [52][56]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report contains charts on the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [59][61]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides charts on the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the yield to maturity of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [66][72]. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate rebounds, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can moderately hedge with far - month contracts [4].