燃料油日报：高硫燃料油市场结构边际走强-20250925

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term downward [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Go long the spread of FU2511 - 2512 at low levels (positive spread) [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has strengthened marginally. The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 3.7% at 2,860 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.26% at 3,387 yuan/ton [1] - The sharp rise in the FU futures was driven by the rebound of crude oil prices after a continuous correction, which boosted energy sector varieties, and the marginal improvement of the fuel oil's fundamentals, including reduced exports from the Middle East, slightly recovered refinery demand, and supply impacts from sanctions on Iran and drone attacks on Russia. The cancellation of all 29,910 tons of warehouse receipts at Dading Warehouse also supported the FU structure [1] - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the market contradictions are relatively limited. The increased exports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery due to the shutdown of its RFCC unit may continue, but the overall supply pressure is limited due to the decline in arbitrage cargoes from the West in September, medium to low domestic production, and the diversion of low-sulfur components by strong gasoline and diesel premiums [1] Group 3: Figures and Data - Figures include Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, fuel oil FU futures index closing price, fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, fuel oil FU near-month contract spread, fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main trading volume and open interest, and low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest [3]