山东烧碱去库，PVC随建材行业稳增长情绪反弹

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PVC's price fluctuates strongly with the macro - situation. The release of the "Building Materials Industry Steady Growth Work Plan 2025 - 2026" has improved the sentiment. However, the supply is abundant, the inventory is high, and the export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak. The supply - demand situation remains weak, but the macro - sentiment needs to be focused on [3]. - For caustic soda, the price of 32% caustic soda has been continuously adjusted downwards, while the price of 50% caustic soda has stabilized. The inventory in Shandong is being depleted. Attention should be paid to the demand resilience of the non - aluminum end during the peak season and the procurement situation of new alumina plants [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4919 yuan/ton (+28), the East China basis is - 199 yuan/ton (-28), and the South China basis is - 109 yuan/ton (-28) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4720 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4810 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The price of semi - coke is 690 yuan/ton (+0), the price of calcium carbide is 2890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 48 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 657 yuan/ton (-155), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 652 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit is 5.2 US dollars/ton (+9.8) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 30.6 tons (-0.4), the social PVC inventory is 53.5 tons (+0.3), the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 76.91% (-3.38%), the operation rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 72.00% (-5.20%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 75.43% (-3.96%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 75.6 tons (+6.7) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2548 yuan/ton (+13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 48 yuan/ton (-13) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The profit of a single variety of caustic soda in Shandong is 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 685.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 169.78 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1381.75 yuan/ton (+20.51) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 37.83 tons (+2.15), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.18 tons (-0.03), and the operation rate of caustic soda is 81.90% (-1.50%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of alumina is 86.23% (+1.02%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 65.76% (+0.00%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.52% (+1.75%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Shaanxi Beiyuan plans to conduct maintenance, and some previously maintained units have resumed. The supply is still abundant with new production capacity coming on - stream [3]. - Demand: The downstream operation rate has increased, and the rigid demand for replenishment exists. The export orders and delivery volume have increased, but the export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute value of inventory is high [3]. - Price: The futures price is under pressure, but the impact of macro - sentiment needs to be focused on [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The production of previously maintained enterprises in Hubei and Inner Mongolia has resumed, and new production capacity in Tianjin Bohua has reached full production [3]. - Demand: The orders of alumina in Shandong are stable, but the high - price sales are not smooth. The inventory of 50% caustic soda has decreased, driving the inventory depletion in Shandong. Attention should be paid to the demand resilience of the non - aluminum end [3]. - Price: The price of 32% caustic soda has been continuously adjusted downwards, and the price of 50% caustic soda has stabilized [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate strongly with the macro - situation [4]. - Inter - delivery: Wait and see [4]. - Inter - variety: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait and see [5]. - Inter - delivery: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when the price is low [5]. - Inter - variety: None [5].