EG宽幅调整，基差走弱明显

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; No recommendation for inter - period and inter - variety strategies [3] Core View - The EG market experiences wide - range adjustment with a significant weakening of the basis. The production profit of ethylene - made EG and coal - gas - made EG is negative and decreasing. The inventory data from different sources shows a slight increase in the East China main port inventory. The supply side has high domestic load and many overseas supply losses, with potential reduction in imports from September to October. The demand side has slow recovery and insufficient order connection. The September balance sheet has little imbalance, with low - level inventory expected at the main port, but the early output of Yulong advances the inventory accumulation time, leading to large inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract is 4234 yuan/ton (+22 yuan/ton, +0.52% compared to the previous trading day), the East China spot price is 4305 yuan/ton (+13 yuan/ton, +0.30% compared to the previous trading day), and the East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) is 72 yuan/ton (-12 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG is - 80 dollars/ton (-7 dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - gas - made EG is - 300 yuan/ton (-53 yuan/ton month - on - month). The domestic ethylene glycol load remains stable at a high level [1][2] International Spread - No specific data provided in the given text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The current demand recovery is slow with insufficient order connection. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable but with limited upside. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement in the later stage [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data on Mondays, the MEG East China main port inventory is 46.7 tons (+0.2 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data on Thursdays, it is 38.4 tons (+2.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 8.3 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 7.3 tons (moderately low), and the planned arrival at the secondary port is 2.3 tons [1]