Report Information - Report Title: Data Daily [4] - Research Institution: ITG Guomao Futures [3] - Research Center: Agricultural Products Research Center [5] - Analyst: Huang Xianglan [5] - Date: September 25, 2025 [5] Report Core View - The supply of soybeans in the US may decrease due to lower excellent and good rates and less rainfall in the producing areas, while the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be loose, and the supply in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented. The demand for soybean meal is supported by high livestock and poultry inventories in the short term, but the policy may affect the long - term supply of pigs. The inventory of domestic soybeans and oil - mill soybean meal is increasing, and the inventory days of feed enterprises are rising. The short - term trend of M01 is expected to be volatile [7][8]. Summary by Directory Basis and Spread Data - On September 24, the basis of the 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Dalian was 90, down 2; in Tianjin it was 50, down 22; in Rizhao it was 0, down 2; in Zhangjiagang it was - 30, down 22; in Dongguan it was - 30, down 2; in Fangcheng it was - 10, up 18. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 152, down 47. The M1 - 5 spread was 181, down 14 [6]. - The RM1 - 5 spread was 76, down 43. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 350, and the price difference on the main contract was 535, up 54 [7]. Premium and Discount, Crushing Profit and Inventory Data - The premium and discount of Brazilian soybeans in 2025 shows different trends in different months. The dollar - to - RMB exchange rate and the crushing profit per ton are also presented. The inventory of soybeans in Chinese ports and major oil mills in China shows an upward trend in recent years, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is rising but lower than last year. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The excellent and good rate of US soybeans has dropped to 61%, and it may continue to decline. The domestic soybean inventory is at a high level, and the supply of soybean meal in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be loose, but the purchase progress for November is slow. The supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year needs to be supplemented [7][8]. - Demand: The short - term high inventory of livestock and poultry breeding supports the feed demand. The policy may affect the long - term supply of pigs. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the downstream spot trading volume has improved this week [8]. - Inventory: The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, the oil - mill soybean meal inventory is rising but lower than last year, and it is expected to be in the inventory accumulation cycle in the short term. The inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal are increasing [8]. Market Outlook - The spread between the GNP premiums and discounts of Argentine and Brazilian soybeans is as high as 100 cents, and the price of Brazilian soybeans is relatively firm. The short - term trend of M01 is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the change of premiums and discounts [8].
蛋白数据日报-20250925
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-25 06:22