美联储裂痕持续，贵?属整体保持强势

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The divergence within the Fed persists, with Powell maintaining a data - dependent stance and dovish理事 like Bowman emphasizing the risk of the Fed's lagging actions. Geopolitical tensions remain high, and gold volatility and trading indicators suggest the market is not overcrowded. Precious metal prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [2][4]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core bullish driver for gold. Moderate inflation and weak employment clear the way for the Fed to cut rates. Fed Watch shows that the expectation of Fed rate cuts within the year has expanded to 3 times. After the restart of the rate - cut cycle, dovish expectations are likely to continue driving gold prices up. With the upcoming change of the Fed chair, Trump's control over the Fed is expected to strengthen, increasing the long - term imagination of rate cuts and the risk of the Fed's independence, which also strengthens the narrative of the decline of the US dollar's credit and provides more upside potential for gold prices. The target for US - dollar - denominated gold within the year is maintained at $4000 [4]. - Silver trends follow gold. As the US fundamentals have not shown a significant decline, the soft - landing trade dominates the market, and the suppression of silver's elasticity has significantly eased. Silver prices are expected to follow gold's upward movement and may challenge the 2011 historical high of around $50 in the first or second quarter [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the Fed's interest rates are too high and have lasted too long. He doesn't understand why Powell's attitude has softened. Concerns about an economic recession have eased, and he is worried about distribution issues, calling for rate cuts to relieve pressure. He also mentioned plans to support Argentina, including discussing a $20 billion swap line, being ready to buy Argentine US - dollar bonds, and working to end the tax - exemption period for commodity producers [3]. - A Fed survey shows that corporate treasurers say market sentiment is improving, but tariffs will push up prices [3]. - Bank of England Governor Bailey said that there is still room for further rate cuts. The timing and magnitude of rate cuts depend on the inflation path. The labor market is weakening, and consumers are cautious [3]. Price Logic - On Wednesday, precious metal prices continued to rise during the day. The US dollar rebounded slightly at night and then declined, and the overall price remained strong. The divergence within the Fed persists, geopolitical tensions remain high, and gold volatility and trading indicators suggest the market is not overcrowded, so precious metal prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [4]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core bullish driver for gold. Moderate inflation and weak employment clear the way for the Fed to cut rates. Fed Watch shows that the expectation of Fed rate cuts within the year has expanded to 3 times. After the restart of the rate - cut cycle, dovish expectations are likely to continue driving gold prices up. With the upcoming change of the Fed chair, Trump's control over the Fed is expected to strengthen, increasing the long - term imagination of rate cuts and the risk of the Fed's independence, which also strengthens the narrative of the decline of the US dollar's credit and provides more upside potential for gold prices. Silver trends follow gold, and silver prices are expected to follow gold's upward movement and may challenge the 2011 historical high of around $50 in the first or second quarter [4]. - Outlook: The weekly range for spot London gold is [3600, 3900], and for spot London silver is [41, 47] [4]. Commodity Index - On September 24, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures Commodity Index is presented. The special indices include the Commodity Index (2232.74, +0.56%), Commodity 20 Index (2505.61, +0.54%), Industrial Products Index (2245.28, +0.72%), and PPI Commodity Index (1318.26, +0.35%) [47]. - The precious metal index on September 24, 2025, is 3006.67, with a daily increase of +0.50%, a 5 - day increase of +4.44%, a 1 - month increase of +10.17%, and a year - to - date increase of +35.90% [48].