Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the "Stable Growth Plan for the Building Materials Industry", the "anti - involution" trading sentiment in the market, especially for the glass variety, has intensified. The price of the black building materials sector will continue to be disturbed by the "anti - involution" trading while maintaining oscillations. The downstream replenishment demand represented by furnace materials and the "anti - involution" trading will affect the disk price, and the short - term black building materials sector is expected to oscillate with increased fluctuations [3][4][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of Black Building Materials - Iron Element: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the inventory in factories has increased, indicating pre - holiday replenishment. The typhoon is expected to affect the weekly arrival, and the short - term fundamentals are healthy, but the poor demand during the building materials peak season limits the upside space of iron ore, with the price expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply and demand of scrap steel have both increased again, and steel enterprises have a demand for pre - holiday replenishment, supporting the spot price, which is expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - Carbon Element: The spot coal price has risen sharply, and the profit of coke has continued to shrink due to the increasing cost. Some coke enterprises have started a new round of price increases. The coke inventory of steel mills is moderately high, and the pre - holiday replenishment intensity is decreasing. The game between coke and steel enterprises will continue, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The coal mine production is cautious, and the supply recovery is slow, with limited upside potential. The pre - holiday replenishment of the middle and lower reaches can still be maintained in the short term, and the coal price is expected to oscillate strongly before the holiday [4] - Alloys: The downstream procurement demand during the peak season still supports the price of ferromanganese silicon, but the market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and there is still room for the price center to decline after the peak season. The peak - season expectation and strong cost support the price of ferrosilicon, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the price still has downward pressure after the peak season [5] - Glass and Soda Ash: The actual demand for glass is weak. After the release of the "Stable Growth Plan for the Building Materials Industry", there may still be oscillations after the middle - stream inventory reduction. In the long term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline oscillatingly. The supply surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed, and it is expected to oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [5] 2. Analysis of Each Variety - Steel: The spot market trading volume is average. The peak - season demand has recovered slightly but is still limited, and the overall demand is weak. Steel mills have limited willingness to reduce production, and the inventory is moderately high. However, with the release of the stable growth plan for the steel and building materials industries, the "anti - involution" sentiment remains, and the macro - environment is warm, so the disk has the driving force to rebound from the low level [9] - Iron Ore: The overseas mine shipments have slightly declined, and the arrival volume has increased. The demand is supported by the pre - holiday replenishment, and the inventory level is neutral. The iron ore fundamentals are healthy, but the peak - season demand for rebar needs further verification, limiting the upside space, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][10] - Scrap Steel: The supply and demand have both increased, and steel enterprises have a demand for pre - holiday replenishment, supporting the spot price, which is expected to oscillate in the short term [11] - Coke: The cost support is strong. Some coke enterprises have started a new round of price increases, but the coke inventory of steel mills is moderately high, and the pre - holiday replenishment intensity is limited. The game between coke and steel enterprises will continue, and the disk is expected to oscillate in the short term [12][13] - Coking Coal: The supply is stable, and the spot price continues to rise. The coal mine production recovery is slow, and the upward space is limited. The middle and lower reaches' pre - holiday replenishment can be maintained in the short term, and the coal price is expected to oscillate strongly before the holiday [13][14] - Glass: The "anti - involution" sentiment has intensified. The short - term impact of the "Stable Growth Plan for the Building Materials Industry" is limited, and the long - term will optimize the supply. The demand is weak, and there may be oscillations after the middle - stream inventory reduction. In the long term, market - based capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to decline oscillatingly [14] - Soda Ash: The supply is at a high level, and the price is driven up by the glass sentiment. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to oscillate widely following macro - changes. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15][18] - Ferromanganese Silicon: The peak - season expectation is positive, and the disk oscillates strongly. The downstream procurement demand during the peak season supports the price, but the supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and there is still room for the price center to decline after the peak season [19] - Ferrosilicon: The peak - season expectation supports the price, and the disk recovers from the low level. The peak - season expectation and strong cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the price still has downward pressure after the peak season [20]
“反内卷”交易未?，短期价格仍有波动
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-25 07:07