股市缩量反弹，债市延续偏弱

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index Futures: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [9] - Stock Index Options: Oscillating [10] - Treasury Bond Futures: Oscillating, with a cautious stance [11] 2. Core Views - Stock Index Futures: On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded on low volume, with the growth style being active. Incremental tech events, such as the 2025 Yunqi Conference and positive news from semiconductor - related companies, catalyzed the semiconductor industry chain. Nearly 4,500 stocks rose, but short - term sentiment was fragmented from the index. Due to the approaching National Day, the sustainability of event - driven trends is limited, but declines will trigger加仓意愿. It is advisable to hold a half - position in IM long contracts and wait for an opportunity to increase positions in mid - to late October [3][9]. - Stock Index Options: The option market sentiment was high. The equity market fluctuated upwards, with the STAR 50 Index rising 3.49% on a single day. The overall option trading volume declined slightly, with different trends among different underlying assets. The PCR of option positions and implied volatility generally increased. Considering short - term hedging needs and the entry of double - buying strategies before the holiday, the double - selling volatility strategy is not recommended. For investors with equity holdings, a defensive strategy should be maintained before the holiday [4][10]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market remained weak. Near the end of the quarter, there were concerns about the capital market. Although the central bank will conduct a net injection of medium - and long - term funds through MLF operations, the bond market sentiment is unstable, and negative factors are easily magnified. The strong performance of the stock market may have increased the pressure on the bond market adjustment. The market's expectation of fiscal policy has strengthened. In the short term, monetary policy may mainly rely on structural tools. The bond market remains cautious [4][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market Views - Stock Index Futures - Data: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM for the current month changed by - 0.29, - 1.39, 54.4, and 40.25 points respectively compared to the previous trading day; the inter - delivery spread (current month - next month) changed by 0, 2.8, - 20, and - 9.4 points respectively; the positions changed by - 13140, - 3523, - 5890, and - 27949 hands respectively [9]. - Logic: Tech events drove the growth style. The sustainability of event - driven trends is limited due to the approaching holiday, but declines will trigger加仓 willingness. - Operation Suggestion: Hold a half - position in IM long contracts [9]. - Stock Index Options - Data: The overall option trading volume declined slightly, with different trends among different underlying assets. The PCR of option positions and implied volatility generally increased, except for the implied volatility of STAR 50 ETF options, which rose [10]. - Logic: The equity market rose, and the option market sentiment was high. Considering short - term hedging needs and double - buying strategies before the holiday, the double - selling volatility strategy is not recommended. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a defensive strategy before the holiday for investors with equity holdings [10]. - Treasury Bond Futures - Data: The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, and TL for the current quarter changed to varying degrees; the inter - delivery spread, inter - variety spread, and basis also had different daily changes. The central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 4185 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day [10]. - Logic: The bond market remained weak. Concerns about the capital market near the end of the quarter, unstable bond market sentiment, the strong stock market, and expectations of fiscal policy all contributed to the bond market adjustment. - Operation Suggestion: For trend strategies, be cautiously optimistic about oscillations; for hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening; for curve strategies, expect the curve to remain steep [11]. II. Economic Calendar - China: The one - year loan prime rate as of September 22, 2025, remained at 3% [13]. - Europe: The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.5, lower than the previous value of 50.7 and the forecast value of 50.9 [13]. - US: The annualized total number of new home sales in August was 800,000, higher than the previous value of 664,000 and the forecast value of 650,000. The number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 is yet to be released, with a previous value of 231,000 and a forecast value of 235,000 [13]. III. Important Information and News Tracking - Stablecoin: The Hong Kong Monetary Authority clarified that the news about the issuance of the world's first offshore RMB - linked stablecoin in Hong Kong is false. The "Stablecoin Ordinance" came into effect on August 1, 2025, and anyone issuing fiat - linked stablecoins in Hong Kong needs a license [13]. - Consumption: Eight departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a guidance on promoting digital consumption, aiming to expand digital product consumption, encourage R & D innovation, and develop new consumer brands [14]. IV. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the given content.