降息交易（1）：降息之后的资产定价机制

Group 1 - The report highlights a strong expectation in the U.S. federal funds futures market for interest rate cuts, with traders anticipating a reduction of 85 basis points (bp) in the next 6 months and 125 bp in the next 12 months [3][15][16] - Following the Federal Reserve's recent 25 bp rate cut, market expectations for future policy paths remained unchanged, indicating that the cut was fully anticipated by the market [4][16] - The report suggests that the U.S. stock market is likely to benefit from the anticipated rate cuts, as historical trends show that such cuts can lead to upward movements in stock prices [4][23] Group 2 - In the context of the Chinese stock market, the report indicates that the Fed's rate cuts may provide a supportive backdrop for growth stocks, but the actual performance will depend on domestic policy triggers [4][59] - The report notes that the A-share market's structural growth opportunities are still present, driven by advancements in the AI industry, despite the lack of immediate policy stimulus [4][60] - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to be more sensitive to international liquidity, with historical patterns suggesting it may outperform the A-share market following rate cuts [4][59] Group 3 - The report discusses the gold market, indicating that after the initial rate cut, gold is likely to enter a more volatile phase, with its price movements increasingly influenced by geopolitical risks rather than interest rate expectations [5][41] - Historical data shows that gold prices have shifted from a strong negative correlation with interest rate expectations before the first rate cut to a more mixed pricing mechanism afterward [5][43] Group 4 - The report emphasizes that the dynamics of the copper and oil markets post-rate cut are complex, with price movements showing significant divergence and being influenced by demand expectations rather than solely by interest rate changes [5][62]