Group 1: Report Summary - The total bond custody scale in August increased by 150.6 billion yuan month-on-month, with a slower growth compared to July. The custody increments of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds rose, while the net financing scale of local bonds and credit bonds declined, and commercial bank bonds turned into net repayment. The custody scale of interbank certificates of deposit continued to decline significantly [4][7]. - In early August, the bond market oscillated and recovered, but after mid - August, sentiment weakened due to the continuous new highs of A - shares. Long - term interest rates were under pressure, while short - term rates were relatively resilient. From the perspective of institutional behavior, broad - based funds may have been affected by liability - side disturbances and reduced their bond holdings for the first time since February. Dealers also increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds. However, the承接 power of allocation - oriented investors was insufficient, which might have prevented interest rates from stabilizing in August. Notably, foreign institutions significantly narrowed their reduction of domestic bond holdings, possibly indicating an increase in their overall allocation of Chinese assets [4][9]. - Affected by the decline in the balance of repurchase agreements, the bond market leverage ratio slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 107.5% in August, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years. Among different institutions, commercial banks' leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.8%, while non - bank institutions' leverage ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 116.9% [4][39]. Group 2: August Bond Custody Increment Analysis - Interest - rate bonds: The issuance scale of treasury bonds increased while the maturity scale decreased in August, with the custody increment rising by 38.42 billion yuan to 82.61 billion yuan. For policy financial bonds, the decline in the issuance scale was smaller than that in the maturity scale, and the custody increment increased by 22.23 billion yuan to 46.16 billion yuan. The issuance scale of local bonds decreased significantly while the maturity scale increased, and the custody increment decreased by 31.51 billion yuan to 51.72 billion yuan [7]. - Credit bonds: The issuance scale of medium - term notes and enterprise bonds decreased while the maturity scale increased. The custody increment of medium - term notes decreased by 11.05 billion yuan to 10.44 billion yuan, and the custody scale of enterprise bonds decreased by 3.53 billion yuan. The issuance scale of short - term commercial paper decreased, and the custody volume changed from an increase of 1.06 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 4.61 billion yuan. The custody scale of PPN continued to decline by 1.53 billion yuan, with a narrower decline compared to the previous month [7]. - Other bonds: The issuance and maturity scales of interbank certificates of deposit both increased slightly, and the custody scale continued to decline by 35.56 billion yuan, with a narrower decline compared to the previous month. Commercial bank bonds turned into net repayment, with the custody volume changing from an increase of 36.9 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 1.64 billion yuan. The custody increment of non - bank bonds increased by 2.04 billion yuan to 5.12 billion yuan, and the decline in the custody scale of credit - asset - backed securities narrowed by 0.58 billion yuan to 0.54 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Institutional Behavior Analysis 3.1 Broad - based Funds - The bond custody scale of broad - based funds decreased by 19.17 billion yuan in August, mainly due to significant reductions in credit bonds and certificates of deposit, while slightly increasing holdings of interest - rate bonds. The reduction in holdings of interbank certificates of deposit, commercial bank bonds, and enterprise bonds increased, while the increase in holdings of medium - term notes and financial bonds on the Clearstream decreased. They turned to reduce holdings of short - term commercial paper and increase holdings of policy financial bonds [12]. 3.2 Securities Companies - The bond custody volume of securities companies increased by 190 million yuan in August, mainly due to a significant decrease in the reduction of treasury bonds, a slight decrease in the reduction of medium - term notes, an increase in the increase of policy financial bonds, and a turn to slightly increase holdings of financial bonds on the Clearstream. The reduction of bond holdings weakened significantly [18]. 3.3 Insurance Companies - The bond custody increment of insurance companies decreased by 5.76 billion yuan to 3.96 billion yuan in August, mainly due to a decrease in the increase of local bonds and treasury bonds, a turn to reduce holdings of policy financial bonds and medium - term notes, and an increase in the reduction of commercial bank bonds. They turned to reduce bond holdings [20]. 3.4 Foreign Institutions - The decline in the bond custody volume of foreign institutions significantly narrowed by 20.41 billion yuan to 9.97 billion yuan in August, with a significant decrease in the reduction of interbank certificates of deposit, treasury bonds, and policy financial bonds. They generally continued to reduce bond holdings, but the reduction intensity weakened [25]. 3.5 Other Institutions - The bond custody increment of other institutions, including the central bank, increased by 9.58 billion yuan to 33.52 billion yuan in August, mainly due to the increase in the net investment of outright reverse repurchase. They significantly increased holdings of local bonds, turned to reduce holdings of policy financial bonds, and slightly increased the reduction of treasury bonds. The increase in holdings of interbank certificates of deposit reached a new high since December 2022, while the increase in holdings of medium - term notes declined from a historical high [28]. 3.6 Commercial Banks - The bond custody increment of commercial banks decreased by 52.2 billion yuan to 120.01 billion yuan in August. They turned to reduce holdings of local bonds, possibly affected by the increase in the net investment of outright reverse repurchase and the concentration on local bonds. The increase in holdings of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds increased significantly, while the increase in holdings of financial bonds on the Clearstream decreased significantly [31]. 3.7 Credit Unions - The bond custody increment of credit unions decreased by 5.92 billion yuan to 1.04 billion yuan in August, mainly due to a decrease in the increase of policy financial bonds and treasury bonds and a turn to reduce holdings of interbank certificates of deposit. They turned to reduce bond holdings [37]. Group 4: Bond Market Leverage Ratio Analysis - The bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 107.5% in August, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years. Commercial banks' leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.8%, still significantly lower than the level before April 2024. Non - bank institutions' leverage ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 116.9%, remaining at a relatively low level since 2022. Among non - bank institutions, securities companies' leverage ratio decreased by 12.8 percentage points to 215.1%, still at a relatively high level in the past three years. The leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 113.8%, remaining at a relatively low level since 2022 [39].
广义基金减持存单信用，交易盘情绪改善但配置力量不足
Xinda Securities·2025-09-25 07:25