中国期货每日简报-20250925

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell. Slightly more commodities rose, with energy & chemicals performing stronger [2][9][12]. - China will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations, which is an important stance declaration and will promote global trade and investment liberalization and inject positive energy into the reform of the global economic governance system [36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 24, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell. Slightly more commodities rose, with energy & chemicals performing stronger [9][12]. - Top three gainers in China's commodity futures were glass (up 4.7% with 0.0% m-o-m open interest change), fuel oil (up 3.7% with 25.3% m-o-m open interest change), and SCFIS(Europe) (up 2.7% with -1.4% m-o-m open interest change). Top three decliners were rapeseed meal (down 3.0% with -0.7% m-o-m open interest change), rapeseed oil (down 1.0% with -6.7% m-o-m open interest change), and soybean meal (down 0.8% with 1.4% m-o-m open interest change) [10][11][12]. - In China's financial futures, equity indices rose (IC and IM up 3.9% and 3.2% respectively), and CGB futures fell (TL down 0.4%) [12]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Glass - On September 24, glass increased by 4.7% to 1237 yuan/ton. The Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026) was issued, regulating cement and glass production capacity [16][19]. - Current actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After mid - stream inventory destocking, there may be volatile fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and prices are expected to fluctuate downward [17][19]. - On the demand side, off - season demand declined, deep - processing orders edged up m - o - m, and inventory days decreased m - o - m. Mid - and downstream pre - holiday inventory replenishment is expected to lead to inventory destocking this week, but the replenishment may be ending. On the supply side, some production lines are to be commissioned in September, and there are concerns about production line suspensions due to coal - to - natural - gas conversion in the Shahe area [18][19]. 1.2.2 Soda Ash - On September 24, soda ash increased by 2.3% to 1307 yuan/ton. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and wide - ranging fluctuations are expected in subsequent operations. In the long run, the price center will move downward to drive capacity reduction [24][26]. - On the supply side, production capacity has not been cleared, and long - term pressure remains. The second phase of the Alxa project was commissioned, but output will take time. On the demand side, heavy soda ash procurement is expected to maintain rigid demand, with stable float - glass daily melting volume and rebounding photovoltaic - glass daily melting volume. Light soda ash downstream procurement has flattened, and downstream inventory - replenishment sentiment is weak [25][26]. - Sentiment disturbs the futures market. With the alleviation of shipment issues and mid - stream inventory accumulation, short - term industrial contradictions are limited, and the futures market mostly follows macro policies [26]. 1.2.3 Coking Coal - On September 24, coking coal increased by 1.2% to 1224.5 yuan/ton. "Anti - involution" is the main policy theme, and market sentiment is unlikely to turn significantly cold as relevant expectations are not falsified [29][31]. - Fundamentally, coal mines are producing cautiously during over - capacity inspections, supply recovery is slow, and there is limited room for further growth. Mid - and downstream sectors have started pre - National - Day inventory replenishment, so prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [29][31]. - On the supply side, coal mine production in producing areas is recovering slowly due to safety supervision, environmental protection, and over - capacity inspections. At the import end, Mongolian coal clearance at Ganqimaodu Port remains high. On the demand side, coke output is high, downstream coke enterprises have started pre - holiday inventory replenishment, and some intermediate links have also started purchasing, reducing upstream coal mine inventories [30][31]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On September 24, the MOFCOM held a press briefing to introduce that China, as a responsible major developing country, will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations. This is an important stance declaration and a key measure for China to uphold the multilateral trading system and promote global economic governance reform [36].