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中加关系有进展，菜粕大幅下跌
CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.(HK:06030) Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-25 08:03
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oscillating Weakly: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, live pigs, cotton (medium - term), sugar (long - term) [2][7][12][18][19] - Oscillating: Corn, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton (short - term), paper pulp, offset paper, logs [11][15][16][18][20][22][23] - Weak Market Sentiment: Fats and oils [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal: With the harvest of US soybeans and the increase in Argentine supply, the domestic supply pressure is dominant, and both are expected to oscillate weakly. Long positions from the previous period can take profits and then wait and see [2][7]. - Fats and Oils: Market sentiment remains weak. The harvest of US soybeans is progressing, but the good - quality rate is declining. The export tax on soybeans and their derivatives in Argentina has been temporarily cancelled. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, the inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in September may be limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decline [5]. - Corn: In the short term, the market faces the pressure of new grain listing, and prices may continue to decline. In the long term, it is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish, with an oscillating outlook [11]. - Live Pigs: The purchase and sale are smooth, but the price is at a low level. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will weaken [12]. - Natural Rubber: Before the holiday, positions are continuously reduced. It is recommended to wait and see. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [15]. - Synthetic Rubber: The market will maintain an oscillating pattern within a range [16]. - Cotton: In the short term, there may be a certain support around 13,500 yuan/ton, and there may be a rebound. In the medium term, due to the expected increase in production, it is expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - Sugar: In the long term, it is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected abundant supply in the new season. In the short term, the price has stopped falling and rebounded [19]. - Paper Pulp: It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern, and the 01 contract may face downward pressure [20]. - Offset Paper: The downstream orders are weak, and the market contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4,100 - 4,400 yuan in the short - term [22]. - Logs: The spot price is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate around 800 yuan in the short term [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - Market Information: On Tuesday, US soybeans and soybean oil rebounded slightly due to technical buying, and domestic fats and oils oscillated weakly. The US dollar weakened slightly, and crude oil prices rose [5]. - Industry Situation: The harvest of US soybeans is progressing normally, but the good - quality rate is declining. The production and consumption of US biodiesel have decreased year - on - year. Argentina has cancelled the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, the inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in September may be limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decline [5]. - Outlook: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to oscillate weakly, and rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - Market Information: On September 24, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes increased, and the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing decreased [7]. - Industry Situation: Argentina has cancelled all grain export tariffs, and the China - Canada trade relationship may improve. Internationally, the supply of US soybeans is increasing, and the export price of Argentine soybeans is decreasing. Domestically, the import volume of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil from Argentina is expected to increase, and the supply may continue to be high. The demand for soybean meal may increase steadily, and rapeseed meal is expected to follow the trend of soybean meal [7]. - Outlook: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and then wait and see [2][7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - Market Information: The average price of domestic corn is 2,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract is 2,158 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [8][10]. - Industry Situation: The price of domestic corn varies in different regions. The supply of new grain in the Northeast is under pressure, and the price is stable or weak. The arrival volume in North China is low, and the price is strong. The port demand is weak, and the price is stable or weak. The new grain in Jilin, Inner Mongolia, and western Heilongjiang has not been listed, and the new grain in eastern Heilongjiang has a high opening price. North China has been affected by continuous rainfall, and the arrival of wet grain is insufficient. Argentina has cancelled the export tax on corn, which may have a limited impact [11]. - Outlook: Corn is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling on rebounds and reverse arbitrage opportunities [11]. 3.4 Live Pigs - Market Information: On September 24, the spot price of live pigs in Henan was 12.79 yuan/kg, down 0.23%, and the closing price of the live pig futures active contract was 12,730 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [12]. - Industry Situation: Affected by typhoons in Guangdong, some enterprises have reduced production. The cost of breeding is expected to decrease due to Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs. In the short term, the supply of live pigs is abundant, and in the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will weaken [12]. - Outlook: Live pigs are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [12]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - Market Information: The price of natural rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has increased, and the export of natural rubber from Thailand from January to August has decreased year - on - year [13][14]. - Industry Situation: The rubber price has maintained a narrow - range oscillation pattern. The fundamentals are currently strong, but there is an expectation of increased supply in the fourth quarter. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the overall demand is not expected to change significantly [15]. - Outlook: Natural rubber is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern within a range. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [15]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - Market Information: The spot price of butadiene rubber and the domestic spot price of butadiene have increased [16]. - Industry Situation: The BR market first rose and then fell, and the absolute price remained basically unchanged. There are expectations of many device overhauls from September to November, and the price is at a low level since listing. The raw material butadiene has a certain support on the supply side, but the downstream demand is weak [16][17]. - Outlook: Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [16]. 3.7 Cotton - Market Information: As of September 24, the number of registered warehouse receipts for the 24/25 season was 3,716, and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 01 was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [17]. - Industry Situation: The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase significantly in the new season. The inventory structure is currently tight in the near - term and loose in the long - term. The demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability is in doubt [17][18]. - Outlook: In the short term, there may be a certain support around 13,500 yuan/ton, and there may be a rebound. In the medium term, due to the expected increase in production, it is expected to oscillate weakly [18]. 3.8 Sugar - Market Information: As of September 24, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar 01 was 5,497 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton [19]. - Industry Situation: Recently, Zhengzhou sugar has continued to decline and then rebounded. The international trade flow is abundant, and the domestic consumption in August is average. The supply of the global sugar market is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 season [19]. - Outlook: In the long term, sugar is expected to oscillate weakly. In the short term, the price has stopped falling and rebounded [19]. 3.9 Paper Pulp - Market Information: The price of domestic paper pulp varies, with the price of Russian pine needles in Shandong at 5,100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [19]. - Industry Situation: The paper pulp futures have been oscillating at a low level. The 09 contract has completed delivery, and the US dollar price of softwood pulp is expected to decline. The paper market has some changes, but the impact is not strong. The fundamentals of paper pulp are still weakly guided [20]. - Outlook: Paper pulp is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. 3.10 Offset Paper - Market Information: The market price of offset paper has remained stable, and the market is waiting and seeing [22]. - Industry Situation: The production of large - scale paper mills is basically stable, and the production enthusiasm of some small and medium - sized paper mills is average. The downstream printing factory orders are weak, and the market confidence is insufficient. The supply and demand have no obvious contradiction in the short term [22]. - Outlook: It is recommended to operate within the range of 4,100 - 4,400 yuan in the short - term [22]. 3.11 Logs - Market Information: The spot price of logs is stable, and the inventory has decreased [23]. - Industry Situation: The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations. The fundamentals have improved marginally, but there is no strong upward driving force. The delivery logic has a negative impact on the market [23]. - Outlook: The log market is expected to oscillate around 800 yuan in the short term [23].