过剩预期待验证，地缘冲突添变数

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply-side changes are expected to be the dominant factor in pricing, while the demand side currently lacks a significant growth driver. OPEC+ aims to increase production to maintain market share, but actual growth may fall short of targets, weakening the impact of supply increases on the market. Non-OPEC+ supply in South America is expected to gradually increase, while low oil prices continue to suppress US shale oil production. The market anticipates supply growth, but the lack of significant inventory accumulation indicates that the risk of oversupply remains to be verified. Geopolitical conflicts introduce many uncertainties, with the stability of Russian supply likely to be the focus of future geopolitical trading. Brent crude oil prices are expected to oscillate within the range of $60 - $75 per barrel in the short term. If geopolitical conflicts lead to a substantial supply disruption, oil prices could face significant upward pressure [5][80] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 25Q3 Oil Price Trend Review - Narrow Oscillation, Declining Volatility - After a pulse-like fluctuation caused by geopolitical conflicts in mid-to-late June, oil prices in Q3 remained in a narrow range, with the benchmark oil spread falling from its peak. Oil price volatility continued to decline, but the central price was higher than in Q2, with an expected average Brent price of around $68 per barrel, a slight increase from $66 per barrel in Q2. Geopolitical conflicts have not significantly affected supply, but there is a high risk of escalated sanctions against Russia by the US and Europe, which may become a key trading factor in the next stage. In Q3, the supply-demand fundamentals were balanced, with a moderate decline in inventory. Despite OPEC+ accelerating production target increases, the oversupply issue was not prominent during the peak demand season, resulting in a lack of clear directional drivers for oil prices [15] 3.2 OPEC+ Firmly Maintains Market Share, Uncertainty Remains on Whether Actual Production Increases Will Meet Targets - Since April, OPEC+ has accelerated the exit from voluntary production cuts, completing the 2.2 million barrels per day cut one year ahead of schedule by the end of September. On October 1st, OPEC+ began to exit the second layer of 1.66 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts, but the full or partial exit will depend on market conditions. Although the planned production increase in October is much smaller than in previous months, the moderate recovery of oil prices in Q3 and the existence of overproduction are the main reasons for continued production increases. - Compared to the increase in nominal production targets, actual production potential has a greater impact on the market. From Q2 onwards, although OPEC+ has continuously raised production targets, oil prices rebounded moderately in July - August, as actual production increases were less than expected, preventing a supply shock. Therefore, whether actual production can meet the planned increase in Q4 will be the focus of market attention. - According to OPEC monthly reports, the production of 8 voluntary production cut countries increased to 32.18 million barrels per day in August, lower than the target increase of 1.92 million barrels per day. Iraq and Russia's production increases were not significant, both remaining below the target by about 100,000 barrels per day on average, while Kazakhstan has been overproducing by about 320,000 barrels per day. Other countries have generally achieved production increases, with Saudi Arabia temporarily overproducing in June to address supply disruptions but compensating in July. - There are differences in the market's assessment of some member countries' production. According to the IEA, most member countries are overproducing. OPEC+'s updated compensation production cut plan shows that most countries still need to make up for overproduction, with a total of 4.78 million barrels per day to be compensated by the end of next June, indicating that some members are still overproducing. - Saudi Arabia and the UAE have significant theoretical idle production capacities of nearly 2.5 million and 1 million barrels per day respectively, with high growth potential. Other members are limited by idle capacity, and their actual production increase speed is likely to be lower than the nominal target. - In terms of exports, OPEC+ production cut countries' exports have slightly recovered from their low levels in the second half of last year, but the upward trend is not obvious. The average export volume of 8 voluntary production cut countries from April - August was 20.26 million barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 410,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's exports increased only in June, while the UAE's exports have been rising since Q2. If geopolitical conflicts lead to a decline in Russian or Iranian exports, it may benefit the exports of other Middle Eastern oil types [18][23][28] 3.3 Geopolitical Conflicts Persist, the Stability of Russian Supply May Become the Focus 3.3.1 The Stability of Russian Supply Faces Increasing Challenges - Russia's supply has declined moderately this year, with an average seaborne crude oil export volume of about 3.36 million barrels per day in the first 8 months, a year-on-year decrease of 150,000 barrels per day. In July - August, due to drone attacks on refineries, more crude oil was exported, leading to higher-than-seasonal export volumes. Russia's seaborne crude oil exports are relatively stable, with exports to China and India at 1.14 million and 1.72 million barrels per day respectively, both showing a year-on-year decrease of about 80,000 barrels per day. Russia's pipeline exports to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline remain at about 200,000 barrels per day, while exports to the Czech Republic have basically stopped since Q2. - Russian energy facilities have been increasingly targeted by drone attacks since August, with refineries and ports being the main targets. On September 12th, the Primorsk port was attacked for the first time, increasing the risk of supply disruptions. In August, there were 15 reports of drone attacks on Russian refineries, with a record high of 1.5 million barrels per day of refining capacity taken offline. Although the increase in attack frequency does not necessarily lead to a significant increase in processing losses, it still has a negative impact on oil product exports. Russia's oil product exports in the first 8 months were 2.36 million barrels per day, a year-on-year decrease of 150,000 barrels per day, with diesel exports reaching a new low in August. - The EU and the US have adopted a tougher stance towards Russia. In July, the EU passed the 18th round of sanctions, including lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil to $47.6 per barrel and banning the import of oil products refined from Russian crude oil starting from January 21, 2026. The EU is also formulating the 19th round of sanctions. The US has threatened to impose high "secondary tariffs" on countries importing Russian oil, and has called on G7 countries to adopt stricter sanctions. Although the details and implementation of these policies are uncertain, the market has not fully priced in their potential impact on supply. - China, India, and Turkey are the main buyers of Russian crude oil, accounting for 46%, 36%, and 6% of Russia's exports respectively. Currently, there is no sign of major buyers significantly reducing their imports. However, due to the increasing risk of sanctions, there is a high risk of a decline in imports from Turkey and India in the future. If this happens, the surplus Urals oil will need to find new buyers. China theoretically has the capacity to adjust trade flows, but the Urals oil is not economically viable for Chinese refineries, and if sanctions intensify, it may also affect the procurement willingness of Chinese state-owned refineries [31][33][38] 3.3.2 Declining Transportation Efficiency Leads to a Marginal Decrease in Iranian Crude Oil Exports - Iranian crude oil production has shown a marginal decline since June, dropping to about 3.2 million barrels per day in August. Exports have also decreased slightly since June, with preliminary data showing 1.4 million barrels per day in August, compared to an average of 1.65 million barrels per day in other months. The main factor affecting Iranian exports is the US's escalating sanctions, which have led to a reduction in the number of unsanctioned vessels, slower delivery, and an increase in floating storage to nearly 27 million barrels at the end of August. The discount on Iranian crude oil has widened from -$1 per barrel at the beginning of the year to about -$6 per barrel in mid-September. Weak demand and approaching year-end import quota shortages may limit Iranian oil procurement by independent refineries in Shandong. However, due to the economic advantages of sensitive oil, Iranian supply is unlikely to decline significantly without a supply disruption at the source [45] 3.4 Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth is Highly Certain 3.4.1 South American Production Growth Outlook is Stable - South American production is gradually increasing, and the relatively stable long-term oil price outlook supports the commissioning of deep-water projects. The period before the second half of next year is a concentrated commissioning period, with a focus on Brazil and Guyana. From the second half of 2026, the growth momentum of non-OPEC+ production is expected to slow down, reducing the negative impact on supply-demand balance. - Brazil's estimated crude oil production in the first seven months was 3.65 million barrels per day, an increase of about 300,000 barrels per day compared to last year. After the commissioning of new offshore production platforms, capacity utilization has gradually increased. Production is expected to stabilize at 3.9 - 4 million barrels per day after this round of commissioning, with growth rates of about 350,000 and 170,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026 respectively. - Guyana's production in the first 7 months was stable at 640,000 barrels per day. The Yellowtail project was commissioned ahead of schedule in early August, and exports began in late August. With a capacity of 250,000 barrels per day, production is expected to reach 890,000 barrels per day by the end of this year and remain at this level until the end of next year. The Uaru project, with a planned capacity of 250,000 barrels per day, is expected to be commissioned at the end of next year, bringing production close to 1 million barrels per day. The production growth rates in 2025 and 2026 are expected to be 130,000 barrels per day each [49][50] 3.4.2 The Suppressed Growth Potential of US Shale Oil is Difficult to Reverse Significantly - According to EIA data, the average US crude oil production in the first half of the year was 13.39 million barrels per day, an increase of 180,000 barrels per day compared to last year, with a further slowdown in the growth rate. The number of US oil rigs has been declining significantly since late April, reaching 416 by the second week of September, the lowest level since October 2021, a decrease of about 15% from the peak in March. The number of fracturing equipment has also decreased, reaching 169 by the second week of September, returning to the level in April 2021, a decrease of about 20% from the peak. Low oil prices have significantly suppressed the capital expenditure willingness of US upstream producers. - Productivity data from shale oil regions show a slight decline in the DUC number in the Permian region, which has supplemented the well completion number to some extent. The improvement in well production efficiency is mainly due to the increasing efficiency of rig use, with the number of new wells per rig in the Permian region rising to 1.7. However, the new well production/well completion number ratio has not shown a significant upward trend, indicating that producers are currently focusing on optimizing capital use efficiency while controlling capital expenditure. Given the expected breakeven price of about $60 per barrel and the rapid decline in rig numbers after the oil price drop in Q2, shale oil producers remain highly sensitive to medium-term oil prices. Therefore, without a significant increase in the oil price center, producers are unlikely to significantly increase capital expenditure. The EIA's September short-term energy outlook predicts a 210,000 barrels per day increase in US crude oil production in 2025 and a 140,000 barrels per day decrease in 2026 [54][58] 3.5 Global Inventory Patterns are Divergent, and Demand Growth is Expected to Remain at a Low Rate 3.5.1 China's Actual Consumption is Affected by New Energy Substitution, while Stockpiling Demand is Stable - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's above-scale industrial crude oil processing volume in the first eight months was 488 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The monthly processing volume has significantly recovered since June, approaching the 2023 high, but the refinery operating rate remains divergent. Independent refineries in Shandong have an operating rate of less than 50% for most of the time, indicating that low refining margins and peak demand for major oil products continue to have a negative impact on their operations. State-owned refineries have maintained an operating rate of over 80% since the end of Q2 maintenance, supporting the processing volume. Customs data shows that China's crude oil imports in the first eight months were 376 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.5%, maintaining a low growth rate. The production of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in the first eight months, and the yield of these products has dropped to about 55% this year. - China's gasoline and diesel consumption shows no significant improvement, as the substitution effect of new energy vehicles and LNG heavy trucks continues to suppress demand growth. The penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles has slowed down, reaching about 54.5% in August, slightly higher than last year's peak. The penetration rate of pure electric heavy trucks and LNG heavy trucks has approached 20%. - According to Kpler data, China's onshore crude oil inventory has been increasing, with both commercial and strategic reserves rising. As of the end of August, the inventory increased by 47 million barrels compared to the end of last year, equivalent to nearly 200,000 barrels per day. Industry sources indicate that an oil price below $65 per barrel will stimulate continuous stockpiling demand, which may further increase if oil prices decline [61][63] 3.5.2 OECD Inventories are Low, and the Risk of Oversupply has not Materialized - In Q3, the gasoline crack spread in the European and American markets was similar to last year's level in summer and significantly higher than last year's level since late August. The diesel crack spread has been rising since June, supported by moderate demand improvement and low inventory. The stable crack spread of major oil products has supported the growth of processing volumes in major refining regions. Although about 600,000 barrels per day of refining capacity is expected to be permanently shut down in the European and American markets, the US refinery processing volume increased by 230,000 barrels per day year-on-year, while the EU processing volume decreased by about 140,000 barrels per day. Processing volumes in regions with new refining capacity have generally increased, with Nigeria's crude oil processing volume reaching about 440,000 barrels per day in the first seven months, and preliminary shipping data indicating a significant increase in net oil product exports in Q3. - Global onshore crude oil inventory has been rising since Q2, but the increase is mainly concentrated in the Chinese market. OECD market inventories remain low, with changes in line with seasonal patterns. European and American gasoline and diesel inventories are also generally low, with gasoline inventories showing a seasonal decline similar to last year, while diesel inventories are significantly lower than last year. Diesel consumption has increased significantly year-on-year, with US diesel consumption increasing by 150,000 barrels per day in the first half of the year according to EIA data. In the European market, improved manufacturing sentiment supports marginal demand improvement, but imports are constrained. European gasoline consumption increased by nearly 100,000 barrels per day in the first seven months, while US gasoline consumption was basically flat in the first half of the year, with high-frequency data indicating a slightly lower consumption during the traditional peak season compared to last year. The low OECD inventories indicate that the expected inventory build-up under continuous production increases has not occurred. - The relatively stable crack spread and low inventory in the European and American markets suggest that the supply-demand balance of major oil products has not deteriorated significantly. However, the market remains cautious about the demand growth outlook. The three major institutions expect low global demand growth rates this year, with the EIA and IEA forecasting growth rates of about 700,000 and 900,000 barrels per day respectively. The EIA and OPEC expect an improvement in growth next year, while the IEA maintains a low growth forecast. According to seasonal patterns, oil product inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4. If the inventory build-up rate in Q4 is not significantly faster than in previous years, the demand side is unlikely to drive a significant downward break in oil prices [66][68][77] 3.6 Investment Recommendations - Supply-side changes are expected to continue to dominate pricing, while the demand side lacks a significant growth driver due to new energy substitution and trade frictions. OPEC+ aims to increase production to maintain market share, but actual growth may be lower than targets, weakening the impact of supply increases on the market. Non-OPEC+ supply in South America is expected to gradually increase, while low oil prices continue to suppress US shale oil production. The market anticipates supply growth, but the lack of significant inventory accumulation indicates that the risk of oversupply remains to be verified. Geopolitical conflicts introduce many uncertainties, with the stability of Russian supply likely to be the focus of future geopolitical trading. Brent crude oil prices are expected to oscillate within the range of $60 -