美联储降息预期次数减少使贵金属价格承压

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Gold and Silver [1] Report Date - September 25, 2025 [2] Report Author - Wang Wenhu [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The reduction in the expected number of Fed rate cuts in the future may cause short - term adjustments in precious metal prices. However, considering the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks, and continuous gold purchases by central banks, precious metal prices may be supported in the medium and long term [4]. Summary by Section Part 1: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - US un - paid public debt decreased by $3.3 billion to $3.75 trillion compared to last week. The fiscal deficit in the 2025 fiscal year was $1.97 trillion, an increase of $140 billion from 2024 [11]. - The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was $29.2 billion. The Fed's bank reserve balance decreased, the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased, and the US Treasury cash account increased. The Treasury plans to increase cash reserves to $850 billion by the end of September [12][14]. - The Fed's rediscount and seasonal loans to commercial banks increased, and the regular financing plan BTFP expired and dropped to $0 [16]. - The implied inflation expectations of US medium - and long - term Treasury bonds increased. The 9 - month consumer one - year and five - year inflation expectations were 4.8% and 3.9% respectively, flat and higher than the previous values [17][18]. - The yields of US medium - and long - term Treasury bonds rebounded, and the yields of medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury bonds increased [19][21]. - The spread between US long - and medium - term Treasury bonds widened, and the OFR financial stress index increased, with credit and stock valuations decreasing, safe assets remaining flat, and volatility increasing [23][27]. Part 2: US Economic and Employment Performance - The weekly rate of US commercial bank loans and leases increased, but the weekly rates of commercial and industrial loans and credit card loans decreased [31][32]. - The weekly annual rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales decreased, but consumer spending remained stable [34][36]. - The US MBA mortgage application activity index increased, and the 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates decreased. The total sales of new and existing homes in July increased [37][39]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was lower than expected and the previous value, indicating that the employment market was performing well [40][42]. - The spreads between US and German (Japanese) medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields increased [43][45]. - The euro - US dollar exchange rate weakened, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate strengthened [46]. - The volatilities of the US S&P 500 and gold ETF indexes increased [48]. Part 3: Gold - Silver Spread and Inventory Situation - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures increased, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased [54][56]. - The total gold inventories in COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [58][60]. - The domestic - foreign gold futures spread was at a relatively low level, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities [63][65]. - The London - COMEX and Shanghai Gold Exchange - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold basis were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai gold basis [67]. - The spreads between near - and far - term contracts of COMEX and Shanghai gold were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai gold monthly spread [69]. - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures decreased, and the iShare silver ETF holdings increased [71]. - The total silver inventories in COMEX, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange increased [72][73]. - The domestic - foreign silver futures spread was within a reasonable range, and investors were advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [74][76]. - The COMEX and Shanghai silver basis were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai silver basis [78]. - The spreads between near - and far - term contracts of COMEX and Shanghai silver were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai silver near - far - term contract spread [79]. - The "gold - silver ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) was between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years, and investors were advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [81]. - The "gold - oil ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) was far above the 90% quantile of the past five years, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities. The "gold - copper ratio" in London and Shanghai (US) was far above (below) the 90% quantile of the past five years, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, high - entry short - selling arbitrage opportunities [83].