原油日报：伊土管道重启遇阻，特朗普对俄态度转向-20250925

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - Recent oil price trends have been relatively strong, driven by news such as the受阻 restart of the Iran - Turkey pipeline and the tense geopolitical situation in Russia - Ukraine [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price of light crude oil futures for November delivery rose $1.58 to $64.99 per barrel, a 2.49% increase; the price of London Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose $1.68 to $69.31 per barrel, a 2.48% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.53% at 490 yuan per barrel [1] - The EU Commission will propose a plan to increase tariffs on Russian oil imports in due course [2] - Eight international oil companies operating in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq have reached a principle agreement with the Iraqi federal and Kurdish regional governments to resume oil exports, which may restart in "the next few days" [2] - As of the week ending September 22, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 14.922 million barrels, an increase of 1.833 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory increased by 0.628 million barrels to 6.676 million barrels, medium distillate inventory decreased by 0.033 million barrels to 1.618 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 1.238 million barrels to 6.628 million barrels [2] - Rosneft's refinery in Novokuibyshevsk suspended oil processing operations on September 20 after a drone attack [2] Investment Logic - Recent oil price trends are relatively strong, driven by news such as the uncertain restart of the Iran - Turkey pipeline and the tense Russia - Ukraine situation. Trump's attitude towards the Russia - Ukraine conflict is still wavering, and there is no clear path to ease the conflict [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the short term and bearish allocation in the medium term [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black swan events occur - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and Middle East conflicts lead to large - scale supply disruptions [3]