Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-25 09:26Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply glut situation of industrial silicon has not improved yet, although the supply has decreased slightly. The downstream demand is generally flat, and the industry inventory remains at a high level. Industrial silicon prices are currently in a high - level shock, with insufficient upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9055 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the position of the main contract is 270,931 lots, down 2,765 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 64,683 lots, up 2,832 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 49,925 lots, down 38 lots. The closing price of the December contract is - 395 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts is - 395 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passed 553 silicon is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the Si main contract is 445 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1860 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 366,800 tons, an increase of 33,600 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. The monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1337.59 tons, an increase of 1220.14 tons; the monthly export volume is 76,642.01 tons, an increase of 2635.83 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.54 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.09 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, an increase of 4154.82 tons. The weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 71.12%, down 1.59 percentage points. The monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.635 million tons, an increase of 99,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 29,063.7 tons, an increase of 4154.82 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On September 16, the Standardization Administration of China issued solicitation drafts for three national standards, setting clear energy - consumption red lines for polysilicon production enterprises. In terms of industrial silicon, the supply - side operating rate is 33.12%, down 1.91% month - on - month. There are expectations of production cuts in the southwest region, while the northwest region has stable production due to electricity - price advantages [2]. 3.7 Demand and Supply Analysis - Supply: The overall supply glut situation has not been improved. Although the operating rate has decreased, the northwest region has stable production, and there are expectations of production resumption in some areas [2]. - Demand: The downstream demand from organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy is generally flat. Organic silicon has a negative impact on demand, polysilicon has an increased demand but may be limited in the long - term, and aluminum alloy has limited demand - pulling [2].