沪铜产业日报-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated strongly, with increasing trading volume and an increasing open interest; the spot was at a discount, and the basis weakened. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia under Freeport encountered a mudslide accident and suspended operations, which will have a significant impact on global copper production in Q4 2025 and in the future, and global copper ore supply may become tighter. On the supply side, the tight supply of raw materials and the recent decline in copper prices due to the Fed's interest - rate cut will limit smelters' profit margins, and domestic refined copper supply is expected to converge. On the demand side, the slight decline in copper prices has boosted downstream purchasing enthusiasm to some extent, and combined with the pre - holiday inventory demand, domestic demand has increased, and social inventory has slightly decreased. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slightly increasing demand. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.19, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0833, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 82,710 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2,750 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,367.50 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 31 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 238,523 lots, a daily increase of 66,079 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 16,618 lots, a daily decrease of 3,174 lots. The LME copper inventory was 144,975 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 105,814 tons, a weekly increase of 11,760 tons. The LME copper canceled warrants were 11,775 tons, a daily decrease of 100 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 27,419 tons, a daily decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 82,505 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2,460 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 82,445 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2,375 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 59 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 56.50 US dollars/ton, a daily decrease of 4.50 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was - 205 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 290 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 31.37 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 41.74 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 275.93 million tons, a monthly increase of 19.92 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 40.80 US dollars/thousand tons, a weekly increase of 0.50 US dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 70,340 yuan/metal ton, a daily increase of 20 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 71,040 yuan/metal ton, a daily increase of 20 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the processing fee for blister copper in the North was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.301 billion tons, a monthly increase of 310,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, a monthly decrease of 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, a weekly increase of 430,000 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,440 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 460 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 70 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2219 billion tons, a monthly increase of 526,000 tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.497 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 40.431 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,030.919 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,250,287,100 pieces, a monthly decrease of 438,933,600 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 14.32%, a daily increase of 6.03 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 11.22%, a daily increase of 3.13 percentage points. The implied volatility of the at - the - money options in the current month was 13.13%, a daily increase of 0.0011 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.19, a daily decrease of 0.0833 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against a series of interest - rate cuts, expressing concerns about inflation and not supporting rate cuts at the next meeting; San Francisco Fed President Daly believed that economic growth and the labor market had slowed, and inflation was lower than expected, so further rate cuts might be needed. On September 24, mining giant Freeport disclosed that its Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a mudslide accident on September 8, which caused casualties and damaged mining facilities. The mine has suspended operations. Preliminary assessment shows that this may lead to significant production delays in the near term (Q4 2025 and 2026), and operations may return to pre - incident levels in 2027. Freeport's comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower than the July 2025 estimate. Chinese Premier Li Qiang attended the High - level Meeting on the Global Development Initiative and stated that China, as a responsible developing country, will not seek new special and differential treatment in current and future WTO negotiations. Li Qiang met with European Commission President von der Leyen in New York, hoping that the EU would fulfill its commitment to keep trade and investment markets open, adhere to fair competition and WTO rules, and avoid politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues [2].