瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Although the supply-demand pattern of loose supply has been temporarily alleviated due to farmers' reluctance to sell and the expected improvement in demand from pre-holiday stocking, there is still supply pressure this year, capping the upside of prices. The future trend of the pig price will continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 12,685 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the position of the main contract was 89,538 lots, down 1,281 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 328 lots, down 40 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -24,074 lots, down 1,605 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The pig price in Zhumadian, Henan was 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Siping, Jilin was 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunfu, Guangdong was 13,400 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the basis of the main pig contract was 115 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly pig inventory was 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of fertile sows was 4,0420,000 heads, down 10,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year-on-year change in CPI was -0.4%, down 0.4 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,940 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of corn was 2,364.9 yuan/ton, up 7.65 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 893.09, up 3.5; the monthly output of feed was 29,272,000 tons, up 999,000 tons; the price of binary fertile sows was 1,625 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was -199.31 yuan/head, down 37.38 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was -24.44 yuan/head, down 41.28 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 3,1660,000 heads, up 1600,000 heads; the monthly catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail sales was 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Industry News - On September 25, 2025, the daily national pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 289,420 heads, up 4.56% from the previous day; the pig 2511 contract closed down 0.12% on Thursday. There is supply pressure in the near - term, and the active slaughter by farmers in mid - and early September suppressed the price decline [2]