Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-25 09:25Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead has decreased slightly, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the news from the Federal Reserve and takes profits, the market shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,090 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 3 - month lead quote on LME is 2,002.5 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars [3]. - The spread between the November - December contracts of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 93,632 lots, down 1,182 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 541 lots, up 261 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 38,160 tons, down 3,450 tons [3]. - The inventory of SHFE is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME lead inventory is 219,725 tons, down 250 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 16,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 40.08 dollars/ton, up 2.05 dollars [3]. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,830 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [3]. - The average operating rate of primary lead is 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,900 tons, unchanged [3]. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the global lead ore output is 395,900 tons, up 15,700 tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of lead ore is 134,800 tons, up 12,700 tons; the domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory average is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons [3]. - The average market price of waste batteries is 10,091.07 yuan/ton, down 23.22 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 49,680,000 units, up 1,925,000 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,075 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries is 2,188.73 points, up 55.3 points; the monthly output of automobiles is 2,752,400 units, up 242,400 units [3]. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,333,000 units, up 157,000 units [3]. 3.6 Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rate has been too high for too long, and the US will enter an easing cycle. Powell should have signaled a 100 - 150 basis - point rate cut [3]. - FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of rate cuts due to inflation concerns; Daly believes that economic growth and labor have slowed, and inflation is lower than expected, so further rate cuts may be needed [3]. - The US has officially lowered the tariff on EU cars to 15% since August 1, 2025, and the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations have made initial progress [3]. - The US has launched a 232 - clause investigation on imported medical devices and industrial machinery [3]. - The Kremlin criticizes Trump for trying to force the world to buy US oil and gas at a higher price [3]. 3.7 View Summary - Some primary lead smelting enterprises in Henan, Inner Mongolia and other regions are in the centralized maintenance stage, the raw material market is in a tight - balance state, and the processing fee of lead concentrate continues to decline [3]. - The production of primary lead continues to decline. The release of recycled lead production capacity has slowed down due to environmental inspections and lower waste battery recycling efficiency [3]. - The demand for lead - acid batteries is relatively stable, the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is warming up, and the demand for lead in emerging energy storage fields is showing a good trend [3]. - Although the downstream purchasing atmosphere has improved marginally, the overall demand has not increased significantly and is still in a slow recovery stage [3]. - Both domestic and foreign lead inventories have decreased, and the overall inventory has declined, indicating that demand has effectively driven inventory reduction [3].