现货提涨，煤焦小幅上涨

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On September 25, the coke main contract closed at 1,760 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.00%. The spot market saw the Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke flat - price index unchanged week - on - week, while the Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke ex - warehouse price dropped 3.33% week - on - week. With thin profits for coke enterprises, rising coking coal prices, and pre - holiday restocking demand, coke started its first price increase. The coke fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode, with the futures fluctuating in a range. The future trend depends on new benefits from anti - involution policies [3][32]. - On September 25, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,234.5 points, with an intraday increase of 0.98%. The Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal price rose 5.79% week - on - week. The national coking coal output increased week - on - week but was lower than the same period last year. The 288 Port Mongolian coal customs clearance reached a high. The demand from coking plants and steel mills was basically flat week - on - week. The coking coal's real - world fundamentals have limited support, but pre - holiday restocking expectations and end - of - month coal mine production cut expectations support the price, keeping the main contract in high - level oscillation [4][33]. Summary by Directory Industry News - In August 2025, the global crude steel output of 70 countries/regions was 145.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. Output in different regions had varying changes: Africa decreased by 3.8%, Asia and Oceania increased by 0.4%, the EU (27 countries) decreased by 2.8%, other European countries increased by 2.1%, the Middle East increased by 21.5%, North America increased by 1.6%, Russia and other CIS countries + Ukraine decreased by 4.9%, and South America decreased by 5.0% [7]. - On September 25, the coking coal price in the Linfen Anze market rose by 10 yuan/ton, with the low - sulfur primary coking coal A9, S0.5, V20, G85 ex - factory price at 1,590 yuan/ton [8]. Spot Market - Coke: Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price was 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, down 6.37% month - on - month and 13.02% year - on - year; Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse price was 1,450 yuan/ton, down 3.33% week - on - week, 2.03% month - on - month and 10.49% year - on - year [9]. - Coking coal: Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal was 1,280 yuan/ton, up 5.79% week - on - week, 8.47% month - on - month and year - on - year, down 7.25% compared to the same period; Jingtang Port Australian - produced coking coal was 1,610 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, up 1.90% month - on - month and 8.05% year - on - year, down 3.01% compared to the same period; Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced coking coal was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 6.21% week - on - week, 4.91% month - on - month and 11.76% year - on - year, down 2.84% compared to the same period [9]. Futures Market - Coke: The main contract closed at 1,760 yuan/ton, up 2.00%, with a trading volume of 26,758 lots (an increase of 4,131 lots) and an open interest of 45,691 lots (an increase of 704 lots) [12]. - Coking coal: The main contract closed at 1,234.5 points, up 0.98%, with a trading volume of 735,240 lots (a decrease of 370,034 lots) and an open interest of 683,520 lots (a decrease of 16,170 lots) [12]. Related Charts - Coke inventory: Charts show the inventory data of 230 independent coking plants, port coke, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory over different years [13][15][16]. - Coking coal inventory: Charts display the inventory data of mine - mouth coking coal, full - sample independent coking plants, ports, and 247 sample steel mills over different years [20][22][23]. - Other charts: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation conditions [26][28][30]. Market Outlook - Coke: The market has a wait - and - see attitude. The future trend depends on new benefits from anti - involution policies [3][32]. - Coking coal: The main contract will maintain high - level oscillation due to pre - holiday restocking and end - of - month production cut expectations, despite limited real - world fundamental support [4][33].