瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The futures price of HC2601 may fall into range consolidation due to the balance between bulls and bears in the market. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 axis, but the red column is expanding. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price is 3,358 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the position volume is 1,369,716 lots, up 1,955 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 76,157 lots, up 1,287 lots; the HC10 - 1 contract spread is 62 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the HC last - trading - day warehouse receipt is 32,504 tons, down 5,355 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 191 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Wuhan, and Tianjin remains unchanged at 3,420 yuan/ton, 3,370 yuan/ton, 3,430 yuan/ton, and 3,330 yuan/ton respectively. The HC main contract basis is 62 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 80 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore in Qingdao Port is 789 yuan/wet ton, down 3 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel is 2,280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 45 - port iron ore inventory is 13,804.22 million tons, down 48.91 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory is 42.21 million tons, down 1.55 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory is 644.90 million tons, up 11.29 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory is 122.5 million tons, up 0.77 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.00%, up 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.38%, up 0.18%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 324.19 million tons, down 2.30 million tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 82.81%, down 0.59%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 81.70 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 298.80 million tons, up 2.11 million tons. The domestic crude steel output is 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons; the steel net export volume is 901.00 million tons, down 38.00 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production is 281.54 million vehicles, up 22.43 million vehicles; the monthly automobile sales are 285.66 million vehicles, up 26.32 million vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner output is 1,681.88 million units, down 377.77 million units; the monthly household refrigerator output is 945.32 million units, up 72.25 million units; the monthly household washing machine output is 1,013.18 million units, up 135.75 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - On September 25, Mysteel information showed that the actual hot - rolled coil output was 324.19 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.3 million tons; the factory inventory was 81.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 million tons; the social inventory was 298.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.11 million tons; the total inventory was 380.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.51 million tons; the apparent demand was 321.68 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 million tons. On September 24, the US announced to lower the tariff on EU - imported cars to 15%, effective retroactively from August 1 [2]