瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1234.5, up 0.98%. It is recommended to treat it as a volatile and bullish trend. The J2601 contract of coke closed at 1760.0, up 2.00%. It is also recommended to treat it as a volatile and bullish trend. Investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main - contract was 1234.50 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main - contract was 1760.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan. The JM futures contract持仓量 was 907095.00 hands, down 17976.00 hands; the J futures contract持仓量 was 53441.00 hands, up 822.00 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 115319.00 hands, up 5854.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 coke contracts was - 5802.00 hands, down 216.00 hands. The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 93.50 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 140.00 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 1690.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal was 1038.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1665.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot was 151.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of imported prime coking coal from Australia at Jingtang Port was 1630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of prime coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1750.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan; the price of quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1470.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J main - contract basis was - 95.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan. The price of coking coal ex - factory in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1080.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM main - contract basis was 35.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.50 million tons, up 0.70 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 310.70 million tons, up 6.30 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, up 0.01 percentage points; the monthly raw coal output was 39049.70 million tons, up 951.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4274.00 million tons, up 713.00 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 194.00 million tons, up 4.10 million tons. The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 515.32 million tons, up 48.97 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.80 million tons, up 2.49 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full - sample was 940.41 million tons, up 56.87 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises in the full - sample was 66.41 million tons, down 1.43 million tons. The weekly inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 790.34 million tons, down 3.39 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills nationwide was 644.67 million tons, up 11.38 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises in the full - sample was 12.74 days, down 0.07 days; the weekly available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 11.42 days, up 0.13 days. The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1016.22 million tons, up 55.50 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 55.00 million tons, down 34.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4089.38 million tons, up 25.00 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 75.87%, down 0.05 percentage points. The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 17.00 yuan/ton, down 52.00 yuan/ton. The monthly output of coke was 4259.70 million tons, up 74.20 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.00%, up 0.15 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.38%, up 0.18 percentage points. The monthly output of crude steel was 7736.86 million tons, down 228.96 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - On September 24, some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and mainstream coking enterprises planned to propose the first - round price increase for coke on the 25th, intensifying the game between coking and steel enterprises [2]. - On September 24 local time, the US announced to reduce the tariff on imported cars from the EU to 15%, effective retroactively from August 1 [2]. - On September 23, 190 mining companies in Indonesia were subject to administrative penalties for failing to provide reclamation as required and comply with production quotas, and were ordered to suspend operations for up to 60 days. Most of the coal mines shut down were long - term shut - down mines, so the impact on Indonesia's current coal production and exports was limited [2]. - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on printing and distributing the "Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026)", proposing to strictly control the production capacity of cement and glass. No new production capacity of cement clinker and flat glass is allowed, and new or renovated projects must formulate production capacity replacement plans [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - For coking coal on September 25, the 2601 contract closed at 1234.5, up 0.98%. On the spot side, the price of Tangshan Meng 5 clean coal was reported at 1366, equivalent to 1146 on the disk. Macroscopically, according to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major import ports of Ganqimao Du, Ceke, and Mandula will be closed from October 1 to 7, 2025, and will resume normal customs clearance on October 8. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of mines has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, some coal varieties have rebounded, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has continued to rise, the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months, and the inventory is neutral. Technically, the daily K is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It is recommended to treat it as a volatile and bullish trend [2]. - For coke on September 25, the 2601 contract closed at 1760.0, up 2.00%. On the spot side, after the second - round price cut of coke was implemented, some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, Guangdong issued an emergency notice on doing a good job in the defense of Typhoon "Huajiacha" and entered the typhoon defense state immediately. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the current iron - water output was 241.02 million tons, up 0.47 million tons, with the iron - water fluctuating at a high level, and the coke inventory was higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 17 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It is recommended to treat it as a volatile and bullish trend [2].