瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - After significant previous increases, the precious metals market is showing increasing pressure for a recent correction. The price trends of gold and silver in the Asian trading session have diverged, and market volatility has risen significantly. This is mainly because Fed Chair Powell's latest remarks conveyed a less dovish stance than market expectations, dampening investors' optimism about the年内 interest - rate cut path and weakening the upward momentum of gold prices [2]. - The progress of the tariff agreement and better - than - expected economic data support a short - term rebound of the US dollar index, suppressing the price of gold denominated in US dollars. Powell's recent speech did not clearly signal a rate cut in the October meeting, which the market interprets as a marginally hawkish stance, contrasting with previous overly dovish expectations. The divergence within the Fed regarding future policy paths has also increased [2]. - The previous optimistic market expectations for rate cuts were fully reflected in the strong rise of precious metals. Now, with the marginal convergence of easing expectations and the increase in tariff policy uncertainty, it may intensify the short - term correction pressure on precious metals prices. The precious metals market is likely to enter a volatile consolidation pattern. Key data to focus on is the upcoming US August PCE personal consumption expenditure index. If the PCE data weakens significantly, it may boost the upward momentum of precious metals; otherwise, gold prices may face further correction risks. It is recommended to adopt an interval - band strategy, and short - term price correction risks should be vigilant [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 854.72 yuan/gram, down 5.28 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 10,411 yuan/kg, up 14 yuan [2]. - Positions: The main contract position of Shanghai Gold was 266,629 lots, down 8,136 lots; that of Shanghai Silver was 514,351 lots, down 1,761 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract was 167,183 lots, down 5,591 lots; that of Shanghai Silver was 113,727 lots, down 5,255 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 65,634 kg, up 5,091 kg; that of silver was 1,156,855 kg, down 4,944 kg [2]. Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 849.8 yuan/gram, down 3.35 yuan; the spot price of silver was 10,314 yuan/kg, up 46 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 4.92 yuan/gram, up 1.93 yuan; that of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 97 yuan/kg, up 32 yuan [2]. Supply and Demand Situation - ETF Holdings: The gold ETF holdings were 996.85 tons, down 3.72 tons; the silver ETF holdings were 15,469.12 tons, unchanged [2]. - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The gold CFTC non - commercial net position was 266,410 contracts, up 4,670 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net position was 51,538 contracts, down 2,399 contracts [2]. - Supply and Demand Quantities: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. Option Market - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 13.54%, down 0.1%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 11.48%, up 0.02% [2]. - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for gold was 20.32%, down 0.03%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for gold was 20.33%, down 0.01% [2]. Industry News - The US and the EU finalized a tariff agreement. Since August 1, a 15% tariff has been imposed on EU cars and auto parts, and since September 1, EU pharmaceuticals, aircraft and their parts, generic drugs and their raw materials, and some metals and ores have been included in the tariff exemption list [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Fed Chair Powell, criticizing him for not setting a clear agenda for rate cuts. Besent said the current interest rates are "too restrictive" and urged the Fed to cut rates by 100 - 150 basis points by the end of the year [2]. - In August, the annualized number of new home sales in the US was 800,000, far exceeding the expected 650,000, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%, reaching the fastest growth rate since early 2022. The inventory of unsold new homes in August dropped to 490,000 units, the lowest level this year [2]. - Bank of England Governor Bailey said that there is still room for interest rate cuts, but the specific timing and magnitude will depend on the trajectory of inflation decline. The labor market has shown signs of weakness, and employment data also reflects this [2].