股指早报：A股缩量反弹，股指维持震荡整固-20250925

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Externally, although the Sino-US tariff negotiations have entered a period of easing, the US government's expansion in Europe and pressure on Russia have increased geopolitical uncertainties. There are still significant differences within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts, leading to increased volatility in peripheral assets. [3][10] - Domestically, the current fundamental recovery remains weak, and incremental policies are anticipated. The A-share market is in a technology - driven structural bull market. The CSRC Chairman Wu Qing stated that efforts will be made to increase the proportion of A-share technology market value, signaling a future structural transformation of the A-share market. Attention should be focused on the technology sector. [3][10] - In the short - term, the recent A - share trend indicates strong support below 3750 - 3800 points for the broader market, but significant pressure at 3900 points. With 4 trading days left until the National Day holiday, it is expected that the stock index will continue to consolidate in a volatile manner before the holiday. [3][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - 海外隔夜 - US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, higher than the expected 650,000 and the previous value of 664,000, indicating the resilience of the US real estate market. [2][5] - Federal Reserve official Goolsbee said he would not support a rate cut at the next meeting. After Fed Chairman Powell sent an uncertain signal about future monetary policy, the hawkish signals from Fed officials suggest significant differences in internal views, dampening market expectations for a Fed rate cut. [2][5] - Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US Treasury yields increased at both short and long ends, gold prices fell, the three major US stock indexes declined, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose, and the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciated. Geopolitical uncertainties and the risk of Russian sanctions are rising, increasing asset volatility. [2][5] - 国内行情回顾 - On Wednesday, the broader market rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.8%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.28%, showing a rebound. Compared with the sharp rise of the index a year ago on September 24th, the current rise is slower, mainly a structural market around the technology sector. [2][6] - Sectors such as power equipment, electronics, media, computers, and real estate led the gains, while banks, coal, and communications declined. There were 4457 rising stocks and 852 falling stocks in the entire market. Alibaba CEO Wu Yongming's plan to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure in three years boosted market sentiment towards the technology sector. [2][6] - 重要资讯 - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rates have been too high for too long and that the US will enter an easing cycle, suggesting that Powell should signal a 100 - 150 basis - point rate cut. [7] - FOMC voting member Goolsbee warns against a series of rate cuts due to inflation concerns and will not support a rate cut at the next meeting, while San Francisco Fed President Daly believes that economic growth and labor market indicators have slowed, and inflation is lower than expected, suggesting a further rate cut. [7] - The US officially lowered the tariff on EU cars to 15% starting from August 1, 2025. [7] - The Kremlin criticized Trump, saying he is trying to force the world to buy US oil and gas at higher prices. [7] - China aims to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by 7% - 10% from the peak in the entire economic scope by 2035. [8] - Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao held a round - table meeting with some Chinese - funded enterprises in the US. [9] - Eight departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to promote service exports and develop digital consumption. [9] - 今日策略 - The external environment has geopolitical uncertainties, and the Federal Reserve has internal differences on rate cuts. The domestic fundamental recovery is weak, and A - shares are in a technology - driven structural bull market. Focus on the technology sector, and expect the stock index to consolidate in a volatile manner before the National Day holiday. [3][10] 3.2期货市场跟踪 - 期货市场表现 - Data on the closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change percentages, basis, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. [12] - 期货成交与持仓 - Data on trading volume, trading volume changes, trading turnover, trading turnover changes, open interest, open interest changes, and other indicators of various stock index futures contracts are presented, as well as data on the positions of the top 20 member institutions. [13] 3.3现货市场跟踪 - 现货市场表现 - Information on the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes, trading turnover, and price - to - earnings ratios of various stock indexes such as the Wind All - A, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index is provided. [35] - 市场风格对指数涨跌影响 - Analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes in terms of weight, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual contributions. [36][37] - 估值情况 - Presents the current valuations and historical percentile rankings of important indexes and Shenwan sectors. [39][42] - 其他市场指标 - Includes data on market average daily trading volume, average daily turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, changes in index trading turnover, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balances, and margin trading net purchases and their proportions in A - share trading turnover. [44][45][46] 3.4流动性跟踪 - 央行公开市场操作 - Displays data on currency injection, currency withdrawal, and net currency injection in the central bank's open - market operations. [49][50] - Shibor利率水平 - Shows the levels of SHIBOR overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month interest rates. [52]