“反内卷”托底，煤价重回700元震荡

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Since the first half of 2025, power demand has turned negative, and coal prices have accelerated their decline. In July, coal supply actively controlled production, pushing coal prices back above the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the negative growth of thermal power continues, and it is difficult to boost the daily consumption of thermal power under the suppression of new energy installations. Coal prices above 700 yuan/ton put some pressure on the costs of marginal power plants and are unlikely to break through significantly. However, the supply side will maintain active production control, and with factors such as winter stockpiling, it is expected that thermal coal prices will remain in a range of 650 - 720 yuan/ton. The negative growth of daily power consumption is difficult to reverse in the short term, and attention should be paid to the long - term production control policies and implementation on the supply side [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Contents 3.1 Port Coal Price - In the third quarter, the "anti - involution" policy dominated the coal price trend. The price of port 5500K coal oscillated upwards from a minimum of 620 yuan and closed at 707 yuan/ton at the end of September. This price increase was mainly driven by upstream and policy initiatives, with the demand side passively accepting. Chemical and cement demand improved quarter - on - quarter in the third quarter, while power consumption continued to show negative growth [5]. 3.2 Demand - Thermal Power Impact: In summer, poor hydropower generation led to a passive increase in thermal power consumption. After September, with the improvement of temperature and rainfall, the national CCTD power consumption has been showing continuous year - on - year negative growth, and power plant inventories have increased passively [10]. - Non - power Industries: The performance of non - power industries remains divided. The chemical industry's production rate and coal consumption continue to grow, while the cement industry maintains negative growth [16]. 3.3 Anti - involution Policy - Policy Comparison: Compared with the 2015 - 2016 anti - involution policy, the 2025 policy has a different background, targeting more industries. The 2025 policy initially focused on the new energy field and later spread to coal, breeding, and basic energy - chemical products. The policy requires strict control of coal mine over - production, with self - inspections in August and national energy bureau re - inspections in September [21]. - Impact on Production: Under the anti - involution policy, coal mine production rates are difficult to return to the first - half high. From July to August, the year - on - year decline in raw coal production was over 3%. Shanxi and Inner Mongolia had the most significant declines, and high - frequency data shows that Shaanxi's production rate has been low since September [23][24]. 3.4 Import - Import Trend: In the first half of the year, the surplus of coal supply and demand was mainly offset by reducing imported coal. From January to July, the cumulative coal imports in the country were 257 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13%. Since August, the continuous expansion of the price difference between domestic and foreign coal has attracted a rapid return of imported coal. In August, the import volume of thermal coal quickly rebounded to 32 million tons, approaching the level of the same period last year [33][38]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - Supply - Demand Table: The report provides a revised supply - demand balance table for thermal coal from 2019 to 2025E, showing changes in total capacity, raw coal production, clean coal production, imported coal, exports, total supply, and total demand [44].