冠通每日交易策略-20250925

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information was provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: The copper market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term due to supply disruptions at the Grasberg mine, weak TC/RC fees, reduced scrap copper supply, and strong demand before the holiday [10]. - Crude Oil: The supply - demand balance of crude oil is weakening. It is recommended to short on rallies due to OPEC+ production adjustments, the end of the peak travel season, and concerns about demand [11][12]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a volatile manner due to increased supply, limited demand, and potential pressure on crude oil prices [13]. - PP: PP is expected to trade in a range. The market is affected by new capacity, increased downstream demand during the peak season, but with less - than - expected demand and no anti - involution policies [15]. - Plastic: Plastic is expected to move sideways. The market is influenced by new capacity, improving downstream demand in the peak season, but with less - than - expected demand and no anti - involution policies [16][17]. - PVC: PVC is expected to face downward pressure in the near term due to increased supply, weak export expectations, high inventory, and slow real - estate recovery [18]. - Urea: The weak reality of the urea market remains unchanged. The price may experience a technical rebound, but the supply is still abundant, with pressure around 1730 yuan/ton [19][20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of September 25, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Container shipping to Europe increased nearly 4%, and some metals and agricultural products also had significant gains. Some contracts like gold, cotton, and rubber declined slightly. Among stock index futures, most rose except for IM, and among bond futures, most declined except for TL [6]. 3.2 Fund Flows - As of 15:16 on September 25, the main contracts of domestic futures saw funds flowing into沪铜2511 (5.346 billion yuan),沪深300 2512 (1.257 billion yuan), and菜油2601 (880 million yuan), and flowing out of中证1000 2512 (3.222 billion yuan),沪金2512 (2.353 billion yuan), and中证500 2512 (1.2 billion yuan) [8]. 3.3 Specific Commodity Analysis - Copper: The Grasberg mine accident disrupted supply. TC/RC fees were weak, and smelter profits were under pressure. August production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. September production is expected to drop significantly. Demand for pre - holiday restocking is strong [10]. - Crude Oil: OPEC+ will adjust production in October, increasing pressure in the fourth quarter. The peak travel season is over, and refinery operating rates are falling. However, inventory drawdowns and geopolitical factors are affecting prices [11][12]. - Asphalt: The asphalt production rate decreased slightly but remained low. September production is expected to increase. Downstream demand is restricted by funds and weather. Cost support has strengthened, but futures prices are expected to decline [13]. - PP: The downstream operating rate increased slightly but remained low. New capacity has been put into operation, and there are more maintenance devices. Demand during the peak season is less than expected [15]. - Plastic: The operating rate increased to a neutral level. The downstream demand in the peak season is improving but not as expected. New capacity has been added [16]. - PVC: The supply decreased slightly, and downstream demand increased during the peak season. Export expectations are weak, and inventory is high. New capacity has been launched [18]. - Urea: The daily production has recovered, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high, and the market is in a weak situation [20].