集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250925

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Today, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC) opened higher and fluctuated. As of the close, the prices of all EC contracts rebounded to varying degrees. Some investors gradually closed their positions as the National Day holiday approached. The futures price is likely to continue its oscillating trend in the short term. For the 12 - contract, investors can continue to look for low - buying opportunities and mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach or intraday short - term operations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with full shipping capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1250 - 1350 to lock in profits [2]. - For those who want to book cabins according to orders and prevent rising freight rates from increasing transportation costs, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1000 - 1100 to determine booking costs in advance [2]. Core Contradiction - As of the close, EC contract prices rebounded. The long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 2590 lots to 20182 lots, the short positions decreased by 1924 lots to 21185 lots, and the trading volume decreased by 8470 lots to 44801 lots (bilateral). The rise in the spot cabin quotation and the closing of positions by some short - position investors led to the rebound in the futures price valuation. Attention should be paid to the risk of capital fluctuations before the holiday this week [3]. 利多解读 - Maersk's spot cabin quotation for the European Line in mid - October stopped falling and rebounded significantly, and MSC's quotation for the European Line also rebounded slightly in the following two weeks [4]. 利空解读 - On September 24, local time, the Trump administration of the United States announced the implementation of a trade agreement with the EU, imposing a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles and auto products starting from August 1. There are also tariff exemptions for certain drug compounds, aircraft parts, and other imported goods. The daily change in the EC basis shows a decline in most contracts [5]. EC Price and Spread - On September 25, 2025, the closing prices of EC contracts showed different degrees of increase, with EC2510 up 5.26% daily and 6.07% weekly, EC2512 up 5.10% daily and 8.38% weekly, etc. The price spreads between different contracts also changed [6]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotation - On October 17, Maersk's 20GP and 40GP opening quotations from Shanghai to Rotterdam rebounded compared with the previous week. In the following two weeks, MSC's 20GP and 40GP total quotations also rebounded slightly. However, CMA CGM's 20GP and 40GP total quotations from Shanghai to Rotterdam decreased compared with the same period [8]. Global Freight Rate Index - Various global freight rate indexes showed a downward trend, such as the SCFIS European Line down 12.87% to 1254.92 points, the SCFIS US West Line down 11.57% to 1193.64 points, etc. [9]. Global Major Port Waiting Time - The waiting times of major ports changed on September 24 compared with September 23. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.706 days to 1.773 days, while the waiting time at Singapore Port increased by 0.633 days to 1.167 days [14]. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - The speeds of different types of container ships changed on September 24 compared with September 23. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor decreased by 1 to 15 [23].