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地缘消息扰动再促原油反弹,能化再震一日
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-09-25 10:37

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Most short positions on energy and chemical products entered the market in early and mid - August and have gained significant profits after nearly two months. Before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to gradually reduce positions and only keep a small part of the positions. If WTI breaks through the strong support of $60 during the holiday, there will be significant short - term acceleration space [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Overall Situation - The short positions on energy and chemical products entered the market in early and mid - August and have been held for nearly two months with large profit margins. It is suggested to gradually reduce positions before the National Day holiday and only keep part of the positions. If WTI breaks through the $60 support during the holiday, short - term acceleration space is large [1][2] 2. Individual Varieties (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In the context of OPEC+ increasing production and seasonal decline in US demand, the probability of oversupply in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on oversupply should be maintained without over - emphasizing short - term positive factors [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. It rebounded today after reducing positions and stood above the short - term pressure at 485. The hourly cycle turned bullish again, with the short - term support at 482. There are two strategies: stop - loss of short positions at the hourly level or widen the stop - loss to the upper limit of the daily - level oscillation at 500 [3] (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The weekly fundamentals of styrene have not improved significantly. Despite a slight decline in supply due to device maintenance, high production and inventory levels remain. New device production in September - October will add to the supply pressure, so the bearish view remains [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today and closed above the short - term pressure at 6935, but the rebound was weak. Half of the short positions should be taken profit [5][8] (3) Rubber - Logic: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Domestic inventory reduction is slow, and there is pressure from falling crude oil prices and synthetic rubber substitution. The demand side is mixed, with semi - steel tire开工 falling and full - steel tire开工 remaining high. The fundamentals are neutral [11] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 16000. Short positions should be held [12][13] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply - demand situation of synthetic rubber has no major contradictions. The supply side has seen an increase in production after device maintenance. The main concern is the cost of butadiene, with port inventory increasing and supply pressure expected to rise. The cost side is bearish [14][17] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 11730. Short positions should be held, and take - profit can be set at 11730 [17] (5) PX - Logic: PX has good profits and high production. The short - term supply - demand has weakened slightly, mainly driven by crude oil costs [21] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It rebounded today after reducing positions and stood above the short - term pressure at 6655. The remaining short positions should be stopped - loss [21] (6) PTA - Logic: The cost of crude oil is expected to decline, and PTA has a high probability of inventory accumulation due to high supply and weak demand. The fundamentals are pessimistic [22] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term oscillating structure. It rebounded today after reducing positions and stood above the short - term pressure at 4620. The remaining short positions should be taken profit [22] (7) PP - Logic: The demand has improved slightly during the peak season, but the supply pressure has increased due to new device production. Be cautious about short - selling after the price decline, and pay attention to the cost - collapse logic caused by falling crude oil prices [24] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 6935. After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [24] (8) Methanol - Logic: The situation of weak current and strong expectation continues. The domestic production is still high, and the port inventory is at a historical high. Although there is a potential for improvement in the fourth quarter, the current 01 contract has a high premium, so it is not recommended to buy on the left side. The downward trend since August has not ended [28] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 2375. The remaining short positions should be held cautiously, and the take - profit can be set at 2375 [28] (9) PVC - Logic: The supply pressure is high due to new device production, and the demand is weak both domestically and overseas. The inventory has reached a historical high, and the pressure remains [32] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 4980 and the 15 - minute pressure at 4930. Short positions on the 15 - minute cycle can be held, with the stop - loss at 4945 [32] (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The current supply - demand situation is relatively stable, but attention should be paid to the potential supply pressure from new device production and the impact of falling crude oil prices [35] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 4275. Short positions should be held, and take - profit can be set at 4275 [35] (11) Plastic - Logic: The supply pressure has increased due to new device production, and the demand improvement during the peak season is limited. The supply - demand situation is bearish, and attention should be paid to the cost - driven impact of falling crude oil prices [37] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a mid - term oscillating/downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 7205. The remaining short positions should be held [39] (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The supply of soda ash remains high, and the high - production and high - inventory situation has not improved [41] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows an oscillating structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure at 1321. The remaining short positions should be held [41] (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The supply of liquid chlorine is abundant, and the demand from non - aluminum industries has limited improvement. The inventory has increased again, and the short - term fundamentals have weakened. Attention should be paid to the demand improvement during the peak season and device maintenance in the medium term [44] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a downward structure. It oscillated today, with the short - term pressure difficult to determine, and the 15 - minute pressure at 2575. After taking profit last week, there is no good entry point, so it is recommended to wait and see [44]