Bank of China Securities·2025-09-25 11:11Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The real estate market in August 2025 showed a narrowing year-on-year decline in transaction volume due to low base effects, while land auction premiums in first-tier cities reached a six-year high [1][2]. - The overall performance of the real estate sector underperformed the CSI 300 index, with an absolute return of 6.5% and a relative return of -3.9% [2][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy adjustments in major cities to stimulate market activity, particularly in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [4][24]. Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In August, new home transaction area in 40 cities was 859.1 million square meters, down 0.5% month-on-month and down 13.5% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 5.0% for the first eight months [14][17]. - First-tier cities experienced an expanded year-on-year decline in new home transactions, while second-tier cities saw a narrowing decline, and third- and fourth-tier cities turned positive [15][16]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home transaction area in 18 cities was 715.6 million square meters in August, down 9.2% month-on-month and down 6.4% year-on-year, with a cumulative increase of 7.5% for the first eight months [22][23]. - Year-on-year declines in second-hand home transactions narrowed in first- and second-tier cities, while third- and fourth-tier cities showed positive growth [23]. Inventory and Absorption - New home inventory increased month-on-month, with an overall absorption cycle of 17.1 months, down 0.3 months from the previous month [4][9]. - The average opening absorption rate in 30 cities improved to 42% in August, up 9 percentage points month-on-month and 13 percentage points year-on-year [4][9]. Land Market - Overall land auction activity declined month-on-month, but first-tier cities saw land premium rates reach a six-year high, averaging 22.3% [4][12]. - The average land floor price decreased by 13.4% month-on-month and 21.5% year-on-year [12]. Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies reported a sales decline of 16.5% year-on-year in August, with a total sales amount of 225.6 billion yuan [4][12]. - The land acquisition amount for the top 100 companies increased by 34.9% year-on-year in August, although it decreased by 27.1% month-on-month [4][12]. Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month in August, with a total issuance of 55.3 billion yuan [4][12]. - The average issuance interest rate was 2.51%, showing a slight decrease compared to previous periods [4][12]. Policy - Recent policy adjustments in major cities aim to support the real estate market, with a focus on urban renewal and easing purchase restrictions [4][24]. - The report highlights the significance of these policies in stabilizing market expectations and promoting demand [4][24].