未来，超长债谁来买？：地方债发行期限梳理-20250925

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance rules of local government bonds have changed significantly in the past decade. Policy encourages the issuance of longer - term special bonds, and the weighted average issuance term of local government bonds has been greatly extended. There may be pressure of supply - demand imbalance for ultra - long bonds in the future, and high macro - leverage ratio in the non - financial sector may lead to increased debt pressure when interest rates rise. It is recommended to address the supply - demand imbalance from both the supply and demand sides [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Changes in Local Government Bond Issuance Rules - In 2015, local governments fully launched independent bond issuance, with a maximum term of 10 years and strict restrictions on medium - and long - term proportions. In 2018, 15 - year and 20 - year terms were added. In 2019, the limit on the term - ratio structure of local bond issuance was removed, and long - term special bonds were encouraged. In 2020, 9 terms were specified, and requirements for the average issuance term of new general bonds were set [1] Differences between General Bonds and Special Bonds - General bonds are used for non - revenue public welfare projects, repaid mainly by general public budget revenue, with an average term within 10 years. Special bonds are for projects with certain revenues, repaid by government fund revenues or special revenues, and long - term issuance is encouraged. In 2025, 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds are planned [1] Changes in the Weighted Average Issuance Term of Local Government Bonds - From 2015 - 2018, the weighted average issuance term was about 6 years. Since 2019, it has increased significantly from 10.3 years in 2019 to 15.5 years as of September 15, 2025. The proportion of local bonds with a term of 15 years and above has risen from 18.6% in 2019 to 48.6% as of September 15, 2025 [1] Potential Supply - Demand Imbalance of Ultra - Long Bonds - The annual issuance scale of interest - bearing bonds with a term of 20 years and above has increased from 1.96 trillion in 2021 to 4.65 trillion as of September 25, 2025. The demand for ultra - long bonds mainly comes from life insurance. However, factors such as the significant reduction of insurance preset interest rates, the peak of non - standard investment maturity of insurance funds, and the new regulations on punitive redemption fees of public funds may lead to a weakening of demand. Banks may also net sell ultra - long interest - bearing bonds in the secondary market [1] High Macro - Leverage Ratio and Debt Pressure - As of the end of March 2025, China's non - financial sector macro - leverage ratio was 292.2%, significantly higher than the average of developed economies (258%). Rising interest rates may increase the debt pressure on enterprises and local governments [1] Suggestions to Alleviate Supply - Demand Imbalance - Demand side: The central bank should restart the purchase of government bonds and expand the scope to local bonds, and encourage banks to promote ultra - long interest - bearing bonds to individual investors and guide long - term funds such as social security and annuities to increase investment. Supply side: Control the proportion of government bonds with a term of 15 years and above and encourage the issuance of floating - rate bonds [2]