铜周报：降息落地情绪转弱，铜价回归震荡-20250925

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate cut was implemented, market sentiment turned weak, and copper prices returned to a volatile trend. The high inventory of US copper indicates insufficient medium - term demand, while the end of the off - season for Shanghai copper suggests that spot demand is expected to gradually improve. Technically, after the positive impact of the interest rate cut fades, the market sentiment declines, and copper prices may show a short - term volatile trend [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Sentiment and Price Movements - On September 14, China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Madrid. With the Fed's imminent interest rate cut, market sentiment was generally optimistic at first, but then declined. The US dollar rebounded slightly on Friday, and most non - ferrous metals fell in the night session after a sharp rise on Friday. After China's September LPR remained unchanged and no new policies were announced at the financial system press conference, market optimism declined. The RMB rose slightly and the US dollar fell slightly, causing non - ferrous metals to rise and then fall. Shanghai copper rose, London copper fell, international copper rose, and domestic spot copper rose [1] Price and Basis Data - Today, Shanghai copper closed at 80,160, and the spot price was 80,310. The spot was at a premium of 150 points over the futures. The spot basis premium dropped to 60 points, and spot trading improved. The LME spot discount narrowed slightly to - 65 US dollars this week, and the external spot demand was average. The US copper inventory continued to rise significantly this week, the London copper inventory decreased, and the Shanghai copper inventory increased, with general spot demand. The RMB exchange rate fell slightly this week, and the Yangshan copper premium rose to 59.5 US dollars, indicating improved domestic spot demand before the holiday. The London - Shanghai ratio of copper prices dropped to 8.01, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper decreased significantly to 119 points, with the external price ratio slightly higher than the domestic one [1] Technical Analysis - Today, London copper fell slightly and traded around 9,980 US dollars. Shanghai copper rose slightly after rising and then falling, closing at 80,160, with a neutral technical pattern. The trading volume of Shanghai copper increased slightly while the open interest decreased, and market sentiment was cautious [2] Market Indicator Monitoring - From September 16th to 22nd, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated between 7.1019 - 7.1191, the spot premium/discount (yuan/ton) ranged from 80 - 470, the Yangshan copper premium (US dollars/ton) increased from 53.5 to 59.5, the LME copper - futures - spot spread was between - 59 and - 71, and the main contract London - Shanghai ratio fluctuated between 7.97 - 8.09 [3]