银河期货农产品日报-20250925

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The early - maturing apples have a poor good - fruit rate, and it is speculated that the Fuji apples may also have a poor good - fruit rate. The continuous rainfall in the western producing areas recently is expected to affect the quality. However, considering the current high price, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9][10] - For trading strategies, expect new - season apples to have a poor good - fruit rate, but the current price is relatively high, so the price will mainly fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Spot price: The Fuji apple price index was 109.50, up 0.07 from the previous trading day. The 6 - fruit average wholesale price was 7.00, up 0.09 from the previous trading day. Prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable [3] - Futures price: AP01 closed at 8446, up 110 from the previous trading day; AP05 closed at 8312, up 63; AP10 closed at 8647, up 99. The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 was 134, up 47 [3] - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against AP01 was - 846, down 110 from the previous trading day; against AP05 was - 712, down 63 [3] 3.2 Market News and Views - Inventory: As of September 3, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 27.35 million tons, a decrease of 6.62 million tons from the previous week. The inventory shipment speed increased slightly due to the limited supply of early - maturing Fuji in the west [6] - Customs data: In July 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 5.36 million tons, a 44.95% increase from the previous month. The import volume was 1.77 million tons, a 5.73% decrease from the previous month and an 8.47% increase year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to July 2025 was 8.66 million tons, a 29.76% increase year - on - year [6] - Market condition: The domestic apple market was generally stable. High - quality cold - storage apples were in smooth trading, while medium - quality apples had poor sales. The supply of Hongjiangjun apples was abundant, but high - quality ones were in short supply. In the northwest producing areas, buyers' purchasing enthusiasm was fair, and the pre - harvest order prices remained high. The arrival volume at domestic wholesale markets was stable, and the mainstream transaction prices remained unchanged [7] - Profit: The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2024 - 2025 season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a 0.1 - yuan decrease from the previous week [8] - Spot price: The mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Shandong was stable. The price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit - growers' apples was 3.0 - 4.5 yuan per catty, and that of third - grade apples was 2.5 - 2.6 yuan per catty. The transaction price of Hongjiangjun apples was 1.5 - 1.6 yuan per catty [8] 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract main - contract basis, and spreads between different AP contracts, as well as charts related to apple arrival volume, 6 - fruit prices, cold - storage inventory, and cold - storage apple shipment volume [14][16][22]