Report Date - September 25, 2025 [4] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile consolidation trend as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is fulfilled and the rubber market enters a weak supply - demand structure - dominated market [5] - The domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain a volatile consolidation trend due to the weak methanol supply - demand fundamentals and the rebound of the futures price being suppressed by the moving average [5] - The domestic crude oil futures 2511 contract may maintain a volatile upward trend under the enhanced geopolitical risks, as Ukraine continuously attacks Russian oil - producing facilities and the US plans tariff sanctions on Russia [5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of September 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 46.12 million tons, a decrease of 0.36 million tons or 0.76% from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory decreased by 5.07%, and the general - trade inventory increased by 0.04%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.59 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.91 percentage points. The inbound rate of general - trade warehouses increased by 1.32 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.78 percentage points [7] - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.30 percentage points [7] - In August 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.0%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The logistics industry prosperity index in August 2025 was 50.9%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [8] - In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck market reached 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [8] Methanol - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 79.39%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26%, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.53%. The average weekly methanol output was 1.8132 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 106,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 84,200 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 30,200 tons [9] - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 31.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.06%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 6.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The acetic acid operating rate was 75.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.84%. The MTBE operating rate was 57.66%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 82.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.33 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.58% [9] - As of September 19, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures盘面 profit was - 183 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/ton [9] - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.3298 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 395,600 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 487,200 tons. The inland methanol inventory as of the week of September 25, 2025, was 320,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,500 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 116,900 tons [10][11] Crude Oil - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 418, a week - on - week increase of 2 and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 19,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 301,000 barrels per day [11] - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 415 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 2.152 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 23.561 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 296,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 405.7 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 504,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 93.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points [12] - As of September 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 98,709 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 16,865 contracts and a 19.13% decrease from the August average. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 220,410 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 14,635 contracts and an 8.94% increase from the August average. Overall, the net long positions in the WTI crude oil futures market decreased significantly week - on - week, while those in the Brent crude oil futures market increased significantly [13] 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | + 100 yuan/ton | 15,620 yuan/ton | - 50 yuan/ton | - 800 yuan/ton | + 50 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,275 yuan/ton | + 5 yuan/ton | 2,355 yuan/ton | - 3 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 461.8 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 490.3 yuan/barrel | + 6.0 yuan/barrel | - 28.5 yuan/barrel | - 5.7 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts Rubber - Rubber basis [15] - Rubber 1 - 5 month spread [21] - SHFE rubber futures inventory [17] - Qingdao bonded - area rubber inventory [21] - All - steel tire operating rate trend [19] - Semi - steel tire operating rate trend [23] Methanol - Methanol basis [27] - Methanol 1 - 5 month spread [33] - Methanol domestic port inventory [29] - Methanol inland social inventory [35] - Methanol - to - olefin operating rate change [31] - Coal - to - methanol cost accounting [37] Crude Oil - Crude oil basis [40] - SHFE crude oil futures inventory [46] - US crude oil commercial inventory [42] - US refinery operating rate [48] - WTI crude oil net - position holding change [44] - Brent crude oil net - position holding change [50]
多空分歧存在，能化震荡整理：橡胶甲醇原油
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-25 11:40