银河期货白糖日报-20250925

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report, September 25, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [4] Group 2: Data Analysis Futures Market - SR09: Closed at 5,470, down 8 (-0.15%), volume 386 (down 280), open interest 2,436 (up 14) [5] - SR01: Closed at 5,485, down 12 (-0.22%), volume 212,995 (down 74,573), open interest 431,349 (down 7,657) [5] - SR05: Closed at 5,454, down 10 (-0.18%), volume 12,335 (down 9,493), open interest 64,361 (up 388) [5] Spot Market - Sugar prices in different regions: Liuzhou 5,890 (unchanged), Kunming 5,905 (up 10), Wuhan 6,080 (unchanged), Nanning 5,780 (unchanged), Bayuquan 6,015 (unchanged), Rizhao 5,900 (unchanged), Xi'an 6,270 (unchanged) [5] - Basis: Liuzhou 405, Kunming 420, Wuhan 595, Nanning 295, Bayuquan 530, Rizhao 415, Xi'an 785 [5] - Monthly Spread: SR5 - SR01 at -31 (up 2), SR09 - SR5 at 16 (up 2), SR09 - SR01 at -15 (up 4) [5] Import Profit - Brazil: ICE主力 at 16.12, quota - in price 4,440, quota - out price 5,655, spread with Liuzhou 235, spread with Rizhao 245, spread with futures -170 [5] - Thailand: ICE主力 at 16.12, quota - in price 4,399, quota - out price 5,600, spread with Liuzhou 290, spread with Rizhao 300, spread with futures -115 [5] Group 3: Market Research Important Information - Processing sugar quotes were stable with average trading volume in various regions such as Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong, Fujian, and Guangdong [7] - As of the week ending September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased to 76 from 85, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased to 3.1039 million tons from 3.2827 million tons (down 5.44%) [8] - Typhoon "Huajiaisha" made landfall in Beihai, Guangxi on the 25th [8] Logic Analysis - International market: Brazil is in the supply peak, global inventory is accumulating. Recent Brazilian sugar production increase has a bearish impact, but low - price sugar has strong support as ethanol conversion price is at 16.14 cents/lb [9] - Domestic market: China's sugar imports remained high in August, domestic sugar inventory is low, sales rate is high, and the market is affected by international sugar trends. Zhengzhou sugar has greater resistance to decline [9] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: International sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and Zhengzhou sugar will have a short - term oscillating trend [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11] - Options: Wait and see [12] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures including Guangxi and Yunnan monthly inventory, Guangxi and Yunnan sales rate trends, Liuzhou sugar spot price, sugar basis and spreads [13][17][20][27][28][30]