生猪期货日报-20250925

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Research Variety: Live Pigs [1] - Researcher: Qi Jianhua [1] Group 2: Futures Market 2.1 Contract Market - The lh2511 contract of live pigs showed a volatile and weak trend throughout the day on September 23, 2025, closing at 12,665 points, down 1.48% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 44,700 lots and an open interest of 93,500 lots [2] 2.2 Variety Price - All contracts of live pig futures generally declined, and the total open interest of the variety was 249,995 lots, an increase of 2,354 lots from the previous trading day [4] 2.3 Related Market - The total trading volume of live pig options was 16,057 lots, the total open interest was 54,341 lots, an increase of 1,481 lots, and the total number of exercised options was 0 [7] Group 3: Spot Market 3.1 Basis Data - Yesterday's live pig basis was 275 yuan/ton, and today's basis is 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, indicating a slight expansion of the basis [8][9] 3.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The number of registered warehouse receipts for live pigs decreased by 1 lot compared to the previous trading day [10][11] Group 4: Influencing Factors 4.1 Industry News - From September 8 - 14, 2025, the average purchase price of live pigs by designated slaughtering enterprises was 14.67 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.0%. The average ex - factory price of白条肉 was 18.94 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7% [12] 4.2 Technical Analysis - The current short - term trend of the lh2511 contract of live pigs continues, with moving averages in a short - term arrangement and significant price pressure [13] Group 5: Market Outlook - The supply pressure in the live pig market has not been substantially alleviated, and the support of pre - holiday stocking for prices is less than expected, causing the price rebound to be blocked. In the futures market, the lh2511 contract is in a downward trend, dominated by short - term bears, with significant suppression from moving averages. In the short term, the price of the lh2511 contract may still show a volatile and weak trend [15]