有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is currently experiencing a temporary adjustment due to the divergence among Fed officials, the rebound of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, and the U.S. dollar index. However, considering the high expectations for future U.S. liquidity easing and the lingering risk of stagflation, precious metals are expected to remain strong overall [2][3]. - The copper market has seen a significant increase in prices due to the Grasberg mine accident, which has changed the long - term supply - demand structure and intensified the tightness of copper ore. Although consumption is weak, if the price breaks through the previous high, it may further rise [5][7]. - The alumina market shows a downward trend in both domestic and foreign spot prices, with a weakening fundamental outlook. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range at a low level [10][12]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a stable and slightly strong alloy ingot spot price due to the start of raw material preparation by some enterprises and the increasing operating rate of die - casting plants [14][15]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to see the price maintain an oscillatory upward trend, driven by the rebound of the non - ferrous metal sector and the consumption resilience shown by the reduction of social inventory [18][23]. - The zinc market may maintain a slightly surplus state in September. The overseas market has some support for zinc prices, but there is a risk of further decline if there is large - scale warehousing at LME [27][29]. - The lead market has a complex situation with both increasing supply and pre - holiday stocking demand from downstream enterprises. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [32]. - The nickel market is supported by short - term positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines, and the price is expected to be oscillatory and strong [33][34]. - The stainless steel market has increasing production but slow - moving demand. The price is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend [37][38]. - The industrial silicon market is affected by the production schedule of polysilicon in October and market sentiment. It is recommended to participate in long positions [41][42]. - The polysilicon market is facing the pressure of old warehouse receipts cancellation, but with reduced supply and demand, it is recommended to go long and trade in bands [45][46]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern due to the complex situation of supply and demand and pre - holiday factors [48][49]. - The tin market is restricted by the strong U.S. dollar index, with tight supply at the mine end and weak demand. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [52][53]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold fell 0.72% to $3735.805 per ounce, and London silver fell 0.3% to $43.885 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined [2]. - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.66% to 97.86, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.145%, and the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar fell 0.28% to 7.1315 [2]. Important Information - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 91.9% [2]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a long - only strategy, wait and see for arbitrage, and use collar call options [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session closing price of SHFE copper 2511 contract rose 3.28% to 82610 yuan per ton, and LME copper rose 3.27% to $10320 per ton [5]. - LME inventory decreased by 200 tons to 144,700 tons, and COMEX inventory decreased by 157 tons to 318,200 tons [5]. Important Information - The Grasberg mine accident will lead to a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026 [5]. - AurubisAG's new metal recycling plant in the U.S. has started production, which will reduce U.S. metal imports [6]. Trading Strategy - The price is in a strong upward trend, continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [8]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session price of the alumina 2601 contract rose 22 yuan to 2916 yuan per ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. Important Information - Guinea's bauxite prices decreased, and 130,000 tons of imported alumina are expected to arrive in October [11]. - In August 2025, China's alumina imports decreased by 25.4% month - on - month and exports decreased by 21.4% month - on - month [12]. Trading Strategy - The price fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level, conduct reverse calendar spread arbitrage, and wait and see for options [12]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session price of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 80 yuan to 20400 yuan per ton. Spot prices remained stable [14]. Important Information - The new policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [14]. Trading Strategy - The futures price rebounds with the aluminum price, conduct long AD short AL arbitrage, and wait and see for options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session price of SHFE aluminum 2511 contract rose 120 yuan to 20805 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18]. Important Information - The U.S. implemented a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles. The electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 0.8 tons, and the Indonesian project is expected to be put into production [18][20][21]. Trading Strategy - The price rebounds with the sector, wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc price rose 1.14% to $2922.5 per ton, and SHFE zinc 2511 rose 0.37% to 21995 yuan per ton [27]. - The spot market had weak transactions, and the premium had limited upward potential [27]. Important Information - The domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong is expected to decline due to the typhoon [28]. Trading Strategy - The price oscillates in a range, pay attention to LME inventory changes, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead price rose 0.18% to $2002.5 per ton, and SHFE lead 2511 rose 0.29% to 17125 yuan per ton [32]. - The spot price of lead decreased, and the transaction of recycled refined lead was good [32]. Important Information - The lead inventory decreased, and a small - scale recycled lead smelter in South China resumed production [32]. Trading Strategy - The price oscillates at a high level, short lightly at high prices, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose $95 to $15435 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 1070 yuan to 122750 yuan per ton [33]. - The spot premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [34]. Important Information - A Fed official warned against continuous interest rate cuts, and Indonesia sanctioned 25 nickel mining companies [34]. Trading Strategy - The price is oscillatory and strong, wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The price of the stainless steel SS2511 contract rose 30 yuan to 12935 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased [37]. - The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were stable [37]. Important Information - The stainless steel inventory in Foshan increased, and the U.S. import tariff affected the market [38]. Trading Strategy - The price has a wide - range oscillation, wait and see for arbitrage [39]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon rose 0.84% to 9020 yuan per ton, and the spot price remained stable [41]. Important Information - In August, China's industrial silicon exports increased by 18.30% year - on - year [41]. Trading Strategy - Participate in long positions, sell out - of - the - money put options, and no arbitrage strategy [43]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon rose 2.41% to 51380 yuan per ton, and the spot price remained stable [45]. Important Information - Oriental Hope's Xinjiang project is under maintenance, which has little impact on overall supply [45]. Trading Strategy - Trade in long - short bands, conduct reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts, and sell out - of - the - money put options [46]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The price of the lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell 580 yuan to 72880 yuan per ton, and the spot price remained stable [48]. Important Information - The U.S. government may acquire 10% of the equity of American Lithium, and the U.S. implemented a 15% tariff on EU - imported automobiles [49]. Trading Strategy - The price has a wide - range oscillation, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell straddle options [50]. Tin Market Review - The price of SHFE tin 2510 rose 0.51% to 272950 yuan per ton, and the spot price rose 500 yuan to 271500 yuan per ton [52]. Important Information - The Fed official called for interest rate cuts, OpenAI will expand its data center, and Indonesian tin production is expected to increase [52][53]. Trading Strategy - The price oscillates at a high level, wait and see for options [54].