Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures market was affected by rising raw material prices, causing finished products to follow suit, but the increase was weak due to lack of demand improvement and negative trading sentiment [2] - According to Steel Union data, the blast furnace operating rate rose 0.15% to 83.98% week - on - week, while the steel mill profitability dropped 1.30% to 58.87%. The production profit of hot - rolled coils was relatively good, so steel mills would adjust production. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils in China increased by 1.35 million tons to 3.2649 billion tons, and the total inventory of five major products decreased by 1.78 million tons to 15.1974 billion tons. The inventory of hot - rolled coils increased by 4.67 million tons, and demand decreased by 4.34 million tons to 3.2182 billion tons, suppressing the rise of spot prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Price: The hot - rolled coil futures price showed a state of rising first, then falling, and finally closing slightly higher. The upward trend was difficult, indicating weak market bullish sentiment [3] - Variety Market: As of September 19, the opening price of the HC2601 main contract of hot - rolled coils was 3361 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3374 yuan/ton, the highest price was 3417 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3339 yuan/ton, and it rose 10 yuan/ton this week [6] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot Market Conditions: The average price of Q235B 4.75mm hot - rolled coils in major Chinese cities was 3407 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot profit was 150 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton. The weekly average trading volume decreased 6.1% week - on - week, but Friday's restocking led to a high - volume trading day [7] - Basis Data: The basis between Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot and the futures main contract was 46 yuan/ton, and the regional price difference between East China and North China narrowed by 10 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton, with weak motivation for northern steel to move south [10] 3.3 Influencing Factors - Industry News: The spokesperson of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it would continue to promote supply - side structural reform in the steel industry and ban new production capacity, with a neutral short - term impact on the market [11] - Technical Analysis: For the HC2601 contract, the daily MACD indicator showed that the upward momentum was weakening, the RSI (14 - day) entered the neutral range, and the Bollinger Bands formed a current trading range of 3350 - 3400 yuan/ton [12] 3.4 Market Outlook - From September 15 - 19, the hot - rolled coil futures main contract showed a state of "range - bound trading and long - short game". The core contradiction was the imbalance between high supply and weak demand. In the short term, the hot - rolled coil futures may maintain range - bound trading, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday restocking progress and marginal improvement signals in manufacturing demand [13]
热卷期货周报-20250925
Guo Jin Qi Huo·2025-09-25 12:30