黑色金属日报-20250925

Report Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a volatile pattern, with demand expectations being pessimistic and the market sentiment cautious [1] - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2] - Coke and coking coal prices are relatively firm due to sufficient carbon supply, high downstream hot metal levels, and pre - National Day replenishment sentiment [3][5] - Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices have an upward drive, and it is recommended to go long on dips under the "anti - involution" background [6][7] Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's steel futures fluctuated mainly. Thread demand continued to recover, production stabilized, and inventory declined. Hot - rolled coil demand and production slightly decreased, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly [1] - Iron - water production remained high, and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain eased, but poor steel profits restricted further production resumption space [1] - Downstream demand was weak, with real - estate investment decline expanding, and infrastructure and manufacturing growth slowing down. Steel exports remained high [1] Iron Ore - The supply side was relatively strong, with overseas shipments being relatively high and non - mainstream shipments increasing significantly recently. Domestic arrivals rebounded to a relatively high level this year, and port inventory fluctuated mainly [2] - The demand side was supported by high short - term iron - water production. Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased significantly, and there was still a certain pre - holiday replenishment demand [2] - The market speculative sentiment was volatile due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and pending domestic policies [2] Coke - The intraday price fluctuated upward. The first round of coke price increases was partially implemented. Coke production decreased slightly, and overall inventory increased [3] - The supply of carbon elements was sufficient, and high downstream hot - metal levels supported the price. The pre - National Day replenishment sentiment also contributed to the relatively firm price [3] Coking Coal - The intraday price was in a strong - side fluctuation. Mongolian coal customs clearance was suspended during the National Day holiday and resumed on October 8th [5] - Coking coal mine production increased slightly. Pre - National Day replenishment sentiment was strong, with more spot auction transactions and improved prices [5] - Total coking coal inventory increased month - on - month, and production - end inventory decreased slightly. The possibility of further significant capacity release was low under the over - production inspection background [5] Silicomanganese - The intraday price fluctuated upward. The "Three - Carbon" concept provided an upward drive [6] - Demand was supported by high iron - water production. Weekly production increased, and inventory did not accumulate. Manganese ore prices were slightly higher, and inventory accumulation was slow [6] Ferrosilicon - The intraday price fluctuated upward. The "Three - Carbon" concept drove the price up [7] - Total demand was acceptable, with high iron - water production and stable export demand. Metal magnesium production decreased slightly [7] - Supply recovered to a high level, market spot and futures demand was good, and inventory decreased slightly [7]