国投期货农产品日报-20250925

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (国产大豆): ★☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It provides short - term and long - term outlooks based on factors such as supply and demand, policies, and inventory levels [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean futures saw significant position - cutting, and prices rebounded from a phased low. New domestic soybeans are about to be listed, and new bean quotes are weak. China has accelerated the purchase of Argentine soybeans this week, which helps to gradually reduce domestic soybean inventory and mitigate supply - chain risks in Q1 next year. The supply in Q2 next year depends on the Brazilian new crop [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures rose 1.54% today. US policies have a large impact on the soybean meal market. The short - term bearish trend may end, and the long - term outlook for Dalian soybean meal is cautiously bullish [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic soybean and palm oil futures cut positions, and prices rebounded rapidly. China's short - term active purchase of Argentine beans and large domestic inventory buffers will help reduce inventory. The EU postponed the implementation of anti - deforestation regulations, improving the medium - to - long - term demand outlook for palm oil. In the medium term, soybean and palm oil are expected to trade in a range, and a protective call strategy can be considered [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed futures prices rebounded today, offsetting some previous losses. The domestic rapeseed inventory is extremely low, and coastal oil mills may shut down after the National Day. The consumption of vegetable oil will improve in autumn and winter, and the de - stocking of rapeseed oil is expected to continue. The rapeseed futures are expected to stabilize in the short term but have limited upside [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continued to decline today. The market is optimistic about the new - season corn yield. With the increase in the listing volume of new corn in the Northeast, the opening price has been falling. Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day [7] Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs hit a new low, and the futures market was weak. The supply pressure is large in the second half of the year. The entry timing of secondary fattening and government support policies need to be monitored. The current futures price of live pigs is bearish [8] Eggs - Egg futures fluctuated narrowly, and near - month contracts rebounded slightly. The spot price has been falling in many places. After the National Day, egg demand will return to a weak state. The industry needs to deeply reduce production capacity. For the far - month contracts in H1 next year, long positions can be considered [9]