电解铜期货日报：库存偏高，铜价受拖累-20250925

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The copper price is under pressure due to high inventory levels across major exchanges, combined with factors such as uncertain US interest rates, subdued downstream procurement, and overall macro - economic pressures in China, resulting in a lackluster performance of copper prices recently [1][2][9]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - On Monday, LME copper prices showed a strong - side oscillation. On Tuesday (20250923), Shanghai copper (SHFE) had a weak performance. The main 2511 contract closed at 79,920 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton or 0.30% from the previous trading day [1]. - The spot market atmosphere was ordinary, with no signs of tightness in the circulation end. Downstream pre - holiday stocking was nearly finished, and consumer enthusiasm was poor. The refined - scrap copper price spread in major Chinese markets continued to rise, with 1,590 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 1,546 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macro and Fundamental Aspects - Overseas financial markets are focusing on the possibility of two Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, creating a moderately loose financial environment. Fed officials are communicating with the market about 'aggressive rate cuts' and 'cautious rate cuts' to guide market expectations [2]. - The 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday usually prompts downstream enterprises to replenish stocks in advance. However, price increases and uncertain US interest rates have curbed procurement in the Chinese market, and the procurement is almost over [2]. - The increasing COMEX electrolytic copper inventory is suppressing the upward momentum of US copper prices, and the overall macro - economic pressure in China is also weighing on SHFE copper prices [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook The increasing copper inventories in COMEX and SHFE delivery warehouses, despite a slight decline in LME electrolytic copper inventory, have led to insufficient upward momentum for copper prices. Recently, the copper price trend has become more cautious due to fundamental factors [9].