化工Q3前瞻：看好顺周期、新材料、新技术方向

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The chemical industry is showing a clear rebound trend, with fundamental risks largely cleared. There are opportunities for investment in undervalued leading companies and high-growth emerging sectors. The chemical price index has been at historical lows since mid-2021, with limited downside potential. By the first half of 2025, capital expenditure in the basic chemical industry is expected to be negative, with construction projects decreasing by 15% year-on-year, alleviating supply-side pressure. Demand is anticipated to increase due to supportive fiscal and monetary policies, as well as the implementation of "new policies" and "anti-involution" measures, leading to an improved supply-demand balance and enhanced profitability in the chemical industry [1][6][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is experiencing a rebound, with a significant recovery trend. The operating revenue of the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry reached 52,002.5 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, while total profits decreased by 9% [6][13]. The price index for chemical products has been on a downward trend since the second half of 2021, and the industry is now at historical low levels, indicating limited further decline [6][8]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the following areas: 1. Cyclical and Anti-Involution Products: With strong fiscal and monetary policies, economic growth is expected to recover, and there is a restoration expectation for commodity demand. The basic chemical industry is entering a phase of negative capital expenditure, with construction projects down 15% year-on-year. The supply-demand balance is expected to improve, and various commodities are currently at historical low valuations, providing high safety margins and potential for high elasticity. Recommended stocks include Baofeng Energy, Hualu Hengsheng, Satellite Chemical, Haohua Technology, Sailun Tyre, and Juhua Co [2][22]. 2. New Materials and Technologies: This area is a key development direction, with potential for improved profitability and valuation due to increased product penetration and domestic substitution. Green technologies such as chemical recycling of waste plastics are supported by policies, and companies like Huicheng Environmental Protection are expected to benefit. The demand for data storage will continue to grow, favoring companies like Stik. The mass production of disruptive products (DVA) for tires, a trillion-yuan market, is anticipated to benefit companies like Daon Co. The 3D printing sector is also expected to grow significantly, with cost reductions and broad application scenarios, benefiting companies like Aisike [2][22][23].