Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-09-25 13:05Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead has decreased slightly, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the news from the Federal Reserve and takes profits, the market shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to go long on lead prices at low levels [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,090 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread for Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai lead open interest is 93,632 lots, down 1,182 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 541 lots, up 261 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 38,160 tons, down 3,450 tons; the SHFE inventory is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,002.5 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars; the LME lead inventory is 219,725 tons, down 250 tons [2]. b. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) spread is - 40.08 dollars/ton, up 2.05 dollars [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) price is 16,830 yuan/ton, unchanged; the number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.59 tons, unchanged; the processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 0.5 thousand tons, up 1.3 thousand tons; the global lead ore output is 395.9 thousand tons, up 15.7 thousand tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 13.48 tons, up 1.27 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,091.07 yuan/ton, down 23.22 yuan [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 49,680 thousand units, up 1,925 thousand units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,075 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 2,188.73 points, up 55.3 points; the monthly automobile output is 275.24 tons, up 24.24 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 133.3 tons, up 15.7 tons [2]. f. Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Yellen believes that the Fed's interest rates have been too high for too long and the US will enter an easing cycle; FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of rate cuts due to inflation concerns; San Francisco Fed President Daly thinks further rate cuts may be needed; the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars to 15% since August 1, 2025; the US has launched a 232 - clause investigation on imported medical devices and industrial machinery; the Kremlin criticizes Trump for trying to force the world to buy US oil and gas at higher prices; the "Fed whisperer" indicates that Powell's remarks suggest further rate cuts may be possible; Sino - US economic and trade negotiations have made initial progress [2]. g. View Summary - The Fed's news has opened up rate - cut space, which has a positive impact on the market sentiment; on the supply side, some primary lead smelters are in maintenance, the raw material market is in tight balance, and the recycled lead production is restricted; on the demand side, the traditional consumption peak season is approaching, the demand in emerging fields is good, but the overall demand is still in a slow - recovery stage; the overall inventory has decreased, indicating that demand has effectively reduced inventory [2].