强政策预期支撑，短期价格以稳为主

Core Insights - The report indicates that the short-term price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable, supported by strong policy expectations [2][3] - Current production levels of polysilicon are stable, with an estimated output of around 130,000 tons in September, while demand from downstream remains excessive [2][3] - High inventory levels exceeding 400,000 tons continue to indicate an oversupply situation in the market [2] Production and Supply - The number of polysilicon producers currently stands at 10, with overall operating rates remaining relatively low [2] - Industry leaders plan to reduce or halt production at their Sichuan and Yunnan bases after the holiday, contributing to a downward adjustment in October's output [2] Demand and Market Dynamics - Market purchasing activity is subdued as downstream leaders have already accumulated significant inventory [2] - The current strategy for downstream companies is to prioritize the consumption of existing stock, leading to a slowdown in polysilicon order placements [2] Price Trends - The market is experiencing a dichotomy between high inventory levels and strong policy expectations, resulting in a divergence between producer quotes and actual market transaction prices [2] - The report anticipates that short-term prices will stabilize at high levels due to reduced order placements in the current market [2][3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the future trajectory of polysilicon prices will largely depend on demand recovery and the effective implementation of production reduction policies in Q4 [3] - It is preliminarily judged that the industry may return to normal profitability by 2026, with leading companies benefiting from significant technological and cost advantages post-capacity clearance [3]