反内卷再出新政策,高质量发展导向明确:光伏反内卷点评
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-25 13:30

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, moving from a single electricity consumption model to a multi-energy comprehensive utilization model, which is crucial for alleviating current PV consumption pressures [2]. - The utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation in China from January to July 2025 was 94.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4 percentage points, emphasizing the need for alternative utilization pathways as installed capacity continues to grow [2]. - Future development will focus on market-driven approaches rather than resource-driven, with an emphasis on cost control, operational efficiency, and competitive strategies [2]. - The report suggests that the construction logic of photovoltaic power stations will gradually shift from "grid connection logic" to "consumption logic," paving the way for a new round of high-quality growth in PV installations [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Transition - The article emphasizes the need for a transition in the photovoltaic industry from single electricity consumption to multi-energy utilization, which is essential for addressing the current consumption challenges [2]. - It specifically mentions the importance of promoting hydrogen production from renewable energy sources, particularly in resource-rich areas, and extending the industrial chain towards green hydrogen metallurgy and green ammonia synthesis [2]. Policy and Innovation - Key measures for breaking the "involution" in the industry include policy coordination and technological innovation, aiming to resolve the supply-demand imbalance in the photovoltaic manufacturing sector [2]. - The report advocates for supporting enterprises through technological innovation rather than merely cost-cutting, highlighting that new technologies will be crucial for the photovoltaic industry's evolution [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that will benefit most from the "anti-involution" policies, particularly in the silicon material segment, including companies like GCL-Poly Energy, Daqo New Energy, Tongwei Co., and TBEA [2]. - It also highlights new technology firms such as Aiko Solar Energy as potential investment opportunities [2]. Valuation Table - A valuation table is provided for key companies in the power equipment sector, detailing their stock prices, market capitalization, and projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3].