股市韧中求进，债市稳中蓄势：2025年四季度全球大类资产配置展望

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment is showing signs of slowing down, with domestic production, consumption, and investment growth rates declining, and GDP growth in Q3 2025 expected to be below 5% [4][20][21] - The global economic growth is projected to slow down to 3.0% in 2025, according to the IMF, with advanced economies experiencing a decline to 1.5% [4][23][24] - The A-share market has shown a steady upward trend in 2025, with significant gains in technology, communication, and non-ferrous metal sectors, and is expected to maintain a "slow bull" market in Q4 [5][27][28] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend in government bond yields, but the space for further decline is limited, and attention should be paid to interest rate strategies and long-term bonds [5][8][10] - The commodity market, particularly gold, is expected to remain bullish in the medium to long term, supported by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and central bank gold purchases [6][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on structural opportunities in the equity market, particularly in technology and policy-driven sectors, while adopting a neutral to slightly bullish allocation strategy [7][10]